In Malabar districts, not a single night has passed since the Centre notified the rules of Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) on March 16 without political parties hitting the streets with flaming torches and chanting spirited anti-CAA slogans.Such aggressive wooing of minority issues is not surprising as Muslim and Christian communities together account for 44.9% of the state’s population as per the 2011 Census and political parties say that the figure would have only increased.
In the larger Malabar region, which has eight constituencies spanning from Palakkad in the geographical centre of the state to the northernmost district of Kasaragod, all the seats have over 25% Muslim population — Kasaragod (30.8% approx), Kannur (26% approx), Vadakara (31.2%), Kozhikode (36.7%), Wayanad (41%), Malappuram (68%), Ponnani (62.4%) and Palakkad (29.4%). Also, when the Christian community is taken into consideration, 13 out of the state’s 20 seats have a minority population share of over 35%. There are six seats in the state where the Christian population has an over 20% share, mostly in the southern half of the state, the highest being in Idukki (41.8%) and Pathanamthitta (39.6%).
The state’s history reveals that every time there has been even a flutter in minority voting behaviour, the electoral impact has been tectonic for both LDF and UDF. For instance, in the 2019 parliamentary elections, UDF won 19 of the 20 seats powered by the consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes, aided by the Wayanad candidature of Rahul Gandhi, who was projected as the future Prime Minister. According to a Lokniti CSDS post-poll survey, UDF secured 65% of Muslim votes and 70% of Christian votes while LDF got only 28% and 24%, respectively, in 2019.
After LDF’s debacle in the 2019 LS polls, the tables turned in the 2021 assembly elections, which marked the first instance of LDF tasting success in their minority outreach and efforts to develop a trust factor. Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself spearheaded the 2019 antiCAA movement with his announcement that it won’t be implemented in the state and the assembly passed a unanimous resolution against the Act. The election saw both Muslims and Christians warming up to LDF and helped it script an encore for the first time in the state’s electoral history by bagging 99 seats and reducing UDF to 41 seats. According to the postpoll CSDS Lokniti survey held in May 2021, there was an uptick in both Muslim and Christian votes for LDF — from 35% in the 2016 assembly elections to 39% in 2021.
Knowing well that Muslim votes could be a determining factor, both UDF and LDF have decided to focus on the fear and apprehensions about CAA and NRC and BJP’s promise of implementing a uniform civil code. Congress is trying to appeal to minorities that as the prime opponent of BJP with a panIndia presence, it is the best bet against Sangh Parivar politics. It is also claiming that there is a tacit understanding between CPM and BJP to cover up corruption charges against top CPM leaders. On the other hand, CPM’s campaign has been focused on hammering in the message to minorities that Congress can’t be trusted. It has been harping on the highprofile defections of 12 former CMs from Congress across the country to BJP, and the switching of sides by the son of A K Antony and the daughter of K Karunakaran. Also, in the race for minority votes, CPM has been wooing IUML supporters by saying the party is getting a raw deal in UDF. At the same time, CPM is supporting IUML detractors in Samastha Kerala Sunni Jamiyyathul Ulema, the influential body of Sunni scholars.
Christians, traditionally, are a guaranteed vote bank for UDF. Leaders like the late Oommen Chandy had very close links with all church leaders though now, UDF doesn’t have leaders of that stature to keep this relationship going. While the majority of the church denominations is not happy with the governing LDF, it is not clear if they would tilt fully to UDF this time too. However, Fr Antony Vadakkekara VC, public relations officer of the Syro-Malabar church, said that the church never takes a political stand during elections — “we only want all our members to exercise their voting rights. They are free to decide who to vote for” — he listed some issues that Christian voters should give priority to. Human-animal conflict in places close to forest regions, fall in rubber price, liquor policy of LDF govt, the approach of the Centre towards the farmers’ strike, backdoor appointments in public services and, last but not least, the alleged persecution of Christians in Manipur and other places are some of the issues the church is raising.
There are roughly over 50 lakh Syro-Malabar Catholics in the state and around 5-6 lakh abroad. The strongholds of the church are Ernakulam, Chalakkudy, Thrissur, Kottayam, Mavelikkara and Pathanamthitta. They are also strong in certain pockets in Vadakara, Calicut and Kannur. Latin Catholics, who have a strong presence in the coastal areas, too have raised a few issues with the state govt and the opposition.
“Based on the response to our demands from either parties, we will take a final decision,” said Sherry J Thomas, state president of Kerala Latin Christian Association. There are around 20 lakh Latin Catholics and are a force to reckon with in the coastal areas of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha and Kochi.
The feud between the Orthodox and Jacobite factions of the Malankara church is another decisive factor in Ernakulam, Pathanamthitta and Mavelikkara. Though the Orthodox church has not taken a public stand, the recent speech by the CM favouring the Church Act during a Jacobite church function in Kochi has not gone down well. The presence of various Pentecostal groups, especially in Pathanamthitta and Mavelikkara, cannot be seen lightly. Similarly, Mar Thoma church in Pathanamathitta and the CSI church in Idukki are also decisive.