Sprawling across three districts — Bengaluru Urban, Ramanagara and Tumkur — Bangalore Rural Lok Sabha constituency also has large swathes of agrarian lands home to a significant number of the politically dominant Vokkaligas, and industrial areas.
Electorally, it has been a Congress bastion since the 2013 byelections which saw the incumbent DK Suresh, brother of KPCC president DK Shivakumar, enter Parliament for the first time.
That Suresh, described to be a “poll surgeon” adept at winning elections — those close to him even credit him with his brother’s success — won even when India was voting BJP and Modi, gives Congress confidence.
But the segment has hotted up with the entry of cardiologist Dr CN Manjunath, whose friendly “heart doctor” image is being leveraged by BJP. It might be Manjunath’s first election, but the son-in-law of former PM HD Devegowda comes from a strong political family that includes former CM HD Kumaraswamy of JD(S) — now part of NDA.
Caste-cading | Politically, this is perhaps the segment with most stakes this season with BJP determined to halt Shivakumar’s progress, which it perceives to be key to hurt Congress’ sustenance in Karnataka. The move to field Manjunath on its ticket and not JD(S) is strategic and indicative of its confidence in its partner. Home minister Amit Shah started his Karnataka campaign from here, while PM Modi is expected later.
Shivakumar, Congress’ prime mover so far as elections go, is vying to stop this by not just ensuring his brother wins but also by going all-out to defeat Kumaraswamy in the neighbouring seat of Mandya. The latter would also give him an upper hand in establishing himself as a stronger Vokkaliga leader, a title he contests for with Kumaraswamy.
Manjunath is confident of causing an upset in this Vokkaliga stronghold — at least 25% of the electorate — with the backing of Urban voters (RR Nagar & Bangalore South assembly seats), anti-incumbency and the Gowda-Modi factor.
“In 2019, JD(S) and Congress fought together and a share of Suresh’s vote came from there and yet, BJP came very close. Also, voters are looking for change, somebody who’s clean and can deliver,” Manjunath told TOI.
Kannada & Image | Suresh, who filed his nominations sporting a Yellow-and-Red (Kannada colours) shawl instead of Congress’, has been building an image that revolves around Kannada pride and Karnataka’s right.
While his statement about separate statehood garnered national attention, locally, he’s been portraying himself to be the only MP to have raised the concerns of the state in Parliament, accusing 25 BJP MPs of toeing the party line at the cost of state interests.
CM Siddaramaiah, in his campaign here said: “Of all MPs, only Suresh had the courage to question the injustice meted out to Karnataka… People need to reject BJP to save Kannada pride.”
The Arithmetic | An assembly constituency-wise analysis of 2019 shows that in urban RR Nagar and Bangalore South seats, BJP earned 27,720 and 49,070 more votes than Suresh, who took the lead in six segments and won with a margin of over 2 lakh.
Among those that performed well for Suresh were Kanakapura (over 1 lakh lead) and Ramanagara (60,111). In Anekal, his lead was 1,818, while Channapatna and Magadi saw his get more than 35,000 votes compared to his competitor and Kunigal gave him a 41,284 votes lead.
“…Even the urban segments will give me leads unlike before. Earlier, apartments wouldn’t entertain us during campaigning, this time, they’re inviting me. They’ve realised that if they need infrastructure to match their urban status, it can only be delivered by me. That my brother is DCM will also help in these areas,” Suresh told TOI.
Muslims & BSP | While BJP is hoping to swing change in Channapatna through former MLA CP Yogeshwar, Congress is looking to woo Muslim votes there, and elsewhere. Overall, Muslims account for around 11.3% of the electorate.
Suresh and Shivakumar, who have sway in Kanakapura and Ramanagar, and have extended influence in Channapatna, Kunigal and Magadi, are not complacent — they’ve been on a poaching spree with several grassroots JD(S) members, including a few Muslim leaders having switched sides.
“BJP and JD(S) leaders may be putting up a fight but their groundlevel workers are with me,” Suresh said. The last minute withdrawal by the BSP candidate — being attributed to DK brothers — is indicative of how close a contest it could be and that every vote matters. After all, BSP had managed 1.2% and 0.8% vote share in 2019 and 2014.