How hot is too hot?
India’s LS elections have been taking place in April-May since 2004.Despite summer heat, poll percentages rose sharply in 2014 & 2019. But heat can deter people from stepping out to vote. Here, we consider degrees of heat impact based on absolute temps as well as deviation from normal. We found that the impact of heat was low in most places in phases 1 & 2, even though turnouts dropped.
Heat impact
Extremely high
Temperature over 42°C & max 5.1°C or more above normal.
Very high
Temperature over 42°C & max 3.1-5°C above normal OR temp over 40°C & max 5.1°C or more above normal.
High
Temperature over 40°C & max 3.1-5°C above normal OR temp below 40°C & max 5.1°C or more above normal.
Moderate
Temperature over 40°C & max 1.6-3°C above normal OR temp below 40°C & max 3.1-5°C above normal.
Low
Temperature below 40°C & max 1.6-3°C above normal OR milder conditions
Phase 1 polling
Maharashtra
Temperatures in 40-42°C range on some seats. Turnouts not strictly comparable with ’19 since some seats polled in another phase.
Uttar Pradesh
Significant fall in turnout this time. Comparable 2019 figures not available due to mismatch in phases. Temperature were well below 40°C in the region.
Bihar
Temperatures above 40°C in several parts, in most areas maximum temps 1.6-3°C above normal. In 2019, area went to polls earlier, on April 11.
Madhya Pradesh
Temperatures were in 40-42°C range although similar conditions prevailed in 2019, when voting in the region took place on April 29.
Chhattisgarh
Temperatures over 40°C in some places.
Phase 2 voting
Rajasthan
During 1st phase (April 19), temps were below 40°C. Higher turnout in 2019 (May 6) despite higher temps. In phase 2 as well, max temps were below 40°C.
Maharashtra
Temperatures over 40°C in some places but in normal range. Turnouts not strictly comparable with 2019 since some seats polled in another phase.
Kerala
Temperatures up to 4.5°C above normal in some spots, above normal in most places.
Uttar Pradesh
Region saw big dip in turnout compared to 2019. Temperature crossed 40°C in seats such as Gzb, Gautam Budh Nagar, Aligarh & Mathura.
Karnataka
Temperatures more than 3°C above normal in Bengaluru, within normal range elsewhere.
Bihar
Temperatures in 40-42°C range in most places, more than 4.4°C above normal, leading to heatwave conditions.
West Bengal
Heatwave conditions in several places with temps more than 4.4°C above normal.
Madhya Pradesh
Temperatures mostly below 40°C. In 2019, region went to polls on May 6, when it was hotter.