PUNE: A weather conundrum is gathering steam over Bay of Bengal ahead of monsoon arrival. India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast formation of a low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22, while some independent forecasters sounded alarm about potential for an intense cyclone in the making that could impact Odisha, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, told TOI: “Low-pressure area will help monsoon advance over Andaman sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal, but it may not have an impact on onset of monsoon in Kerala.However, we have not so far ruled out the possibility of the system turning into a cyclone later because May is known for cyclone formation. It is too early to confirm whether or not it will transform into a cyclone. If at all a cyclone forms, its impact on monsoon progress cannot be gauged as of now because it will depend on its path and intensity.”
GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, however, said the system did have a significant potential to become a cyclone, but is unlikely to hinder monsoon’s progress.
“There are ample chances that the Bay of Bengal system could gradually turn into a cyclone. It is unlikely to disrupt the monsoon progress when it forms, rather only help in its progress,” Sharma said.
Roxy Mathew Koll, senior climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, told TOI: “A low pressure system will definitely develop over the south Bay of Bengal next week. Sea surface temperatures there are quite warm, so the ocean conditions are favourable. Madden-Julian Oscillation is reaching there soon, making the winds also favourable, providing rotational trigger for a cyclone to form. The restricting factor could be early monsoon development.”
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, told TOI: “Low-pressure area will help monsoon advance over Andaman sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal, but it may not have an impact on onset of monsoon in Kerala.However, we have not so far ruled out the possibility of the system turning into a cyclone later because May is known for cyclone formation. It is too early to confirm whether or not it will transform into a cyclone. If at all a cyclone forms, its impact on monsoon progress cannot be gauged as of now because it will depend on its path and intensity.”
GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, however, said the system did have a significant potential to become a cyclone, but is unlikely to hinder monsoon’s progress.
“There are ample chances that the Bay of Bengal system could gradually turn into a cyclone. It is unlikely to disrupt the monsoon progress when it forms, rather only help in its progress,” Sharma said.
Roxy Mathew Koll, senior climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, told TOI: “A low pressure system will definitely develop over the south Bay of Bengal next week. Sea surface temperatures there are quite warm, so the ocean conditions are favourable. Madden-Julian Oscillation is reaching there soon, making the winds also favourable, providing rotational trigger for a cyclone to form. The restricting factor could be early monsoon development.”