The outcome is a significant setback for Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, who has swept two consecutive assembly elections but has miserably failed in the Lok Sabha elections.The Aam Aadmi Party had anticipated that Kejriwal’s arrest over the alleged excise policy case, followed by his interim bail granted by the Supreme Court for campaigning, would significantly boost the party’s fortunes. This was especially important as the party sought national relevance at a time when it is marred by corruption charges against its leaders who are in jail for the same. However, that did not happen.
AAP’s Lok Sabha performance is bound to impact its national expansion plans, as the party not only failed to open its account in Delhi but also failed to secure seats in Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat. In Punjab, a state where AAP had a strong performance in the assembly polls two years ago, the party managed to win only three seats out of the 13 it contested.
The only silver lining for the party was the increase in its vote share despite these losses. AAP’s overall vote share increased by over six percentage points, reaching 24.2%. However, the Congress, which had faced a lot of opposition to AAP alliance from its Delhi leaders, experienced a decline in vote share which dropped from 22% in 2019 to 19% in 2024.
The BJP managed a clean sweep despite some decline in its voteshare. The saffron party’s vote share was 54.4% which was a drop from 56.7% in 2019 and 46.6% in 2014.
AAP secured 24.2% of votes in the four constituencies where it contested, while the Congress received 18.9% in the three constituencies it contested against the BJP.
In terms of assembly segments, the alliance between AAP and Congress garnered more votes than the BJP in 18 segments this year, an increase from nine segments in 2019. However, the BJP emerged victorious in 52 other assembly segments, many of which are currently represented by AAP leaders in the Vidhan Sabha.
AAP’s Lok Sabha struggle continues
BJP candidates outperformed AAP candidates across key constituencies. In New Delhi, daughter of BJP stalwart Sushma Swaraj Bansuri Swaraj making her electoral debut defeated AAP’s three-time MLA Somnath Bharti by a margin of 78,370 votes.
In the West Delhi constituency, BJP’s Kamaljeet Sehrawat secured a win with 8.42 lakh votes, surpassing AAP’s Mahabal Mishra by over 1.99 lakh votes and achieving a 55% vote share. Sehrawat had been chosen over the incumbent BJP leader Parvesh Sahib Singh Verma, who had won the seat in 2019.
In South Delhi, BJP’s leader of the opposition in the Delhi assembly, Ramvir Singh Bidhuri, defeated AAP’s Sahi Ram by more than 1.2 lakh votes. In East Delhi, BJP’s Harsh Deep Malhotra won against AAP’s Kuldeep Kumar by a margin of over 93,663 votes.
Challenges in AAP’s 2024 bid
AAP’s lackluster performance in the recent elections has been attributed to various factors. A significant reason is the party’s decision to form an alliance with a political party that it had strongly criticized since its establishment. This move was perceived as a departure from AAP’s founding principle of fighting corruption.
Another potential reason is that although the alliance may have attracted voters who oppose the BJP, it might not have successfully garnered support from the loyal voter base of the other party. Furthermore, the alliance exhibited weaknesses, as evidenced by their inability to present a united front in Punjab.
Bleak performance in Punjab
AAP faced a disappointing outcome in the recent Lok Sabha elections in Punjab, securing only three seats despite being the ruling party in the state. The Congress party, on the other hand, managed to win seven seats, even though both parties contested independently.
AAP’s performance in the elections is particularly striking given their landslide victory in the 2022 Punjab Assembly elections, where they won 92 out of 117 seats and formed the government. However, the party failed to replicate that success in the national elections.
Party learns lesson, decides to go solo in assembly polls
AAP announced its decision to contest the upcoming assembly elections independently, following its alliance with the Congress for the Lok Sabha elections. Gopal Rai, a senior AAP leader, made this announcement after a meeting with party MLAs and senior leaders at Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s residence. The AAP will also be contesting the Haryana elections alone, which will be a big test for the party as it lost the only seat it contested in the state in the Lok Sabha elections.
Party clarified that the INDIA bloc was specifically established for the Lok Sabha elections. However, for the upcoming Vidhan Sabha elections, AAP plans to contest with its full strength independently. This decision marks AAP’s strategic move to focus on its individual strength in the assembly elections, separate from its recent coalition efforts in the national elections.