Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict, representing the largest cross-border attack on Russian territory since World War II.
This operation, launched on August 6, has seen Ukrainian forces push deep into Russian territory, capturing villages, disrupting supply lines, and creating a “buffer zone” aimed at preventing further attacks from Moscow.
Driving the news
This operation, launched on August 6, has seen Ukrainian forces push deep into Russian territory, capturing villages, disrupting supply lines, and creating a “buffer zone” aimed at preventing further attacks from Moscow.
Driving the news
- According to Kyiv, since the commencement of a surprise offensive across the border on August 6, Ukrainian forces have captured more than 80 settlements, covering an area of 1,150 square km (444 square miles) in Kursk. This marks the most significant invasion of Russian territory since World War Two.
- The Ukrainian air forces have successfully targeted and demolished a second strategic bridge spanning the Seym River in Russia’s Kursk region. This action, as reported by Ukraine’s commander on Sunday, aims to restrict the supply capabilities of a Russian group countering the Ukrainian advance.
- Ukraine’s air force chief, Lt Gen Mykola Oleshchuk, via the Telegram messaging app, said, “Kursk direction. Minus one more bridge! Ukrainian Air Force aviation continues to deprive the enemy of logistical capabilities with precision airstrikes, which significantly affects the course of hostilities.”
- He accompanied his message with a video depicting an expanding cloud resulting from an explosion on a bridge, with one of its sections visibly destroyed.
Why it matters
- The move has caught Russia off guard and has raised questions about Ukraine’s long-term strategy, its potential risks, and the broader implications for the war.
- Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Sunday that the ongoing military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is aimed at creating a “buffer zone” to prevent further attacks by Moscow. - This marks the first time Zelenskyy has explicitly stated the strategic goal of the operation, which began on August 6.
- Initially, he had framed the operation as a defensive measure to protect Ukrainian communities in the bordering Sumy region from relentless Russian shelling.
- By creating a buffer zone in Russia, Ukraine is not only attempting to protect its territory but also to reduce the capacity of Russian forces to launch further attacks.
- This development could alter the course of the conflict, increasing pressure on Moscow and demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to carry out complex military operations deep inside Russian territory.
Zoom in
- The cross-border incursion into the Kursk region has already had tangible results.
- Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces destroyed a key bridge over the Seim River near the town of Glushkovo and struck a second bridge nearby. The destruction of these bridges, which has been confirmed by both Ukrainian officials and pro-Kremlin military bloggers, has disrupted Russian supply lines, complicating Moscow’s efforts to reinforce its troops in the region.
- Pro-Kremlin bloggers admitted that the destruction of the first bridge would hinder the delivery of supplies to Russian forces tasked with repelling the Ukrainian incursion. However, they also noted that Russia could resort to using pontoons and smaller bridges as alternative routes.
- The Ukrainian advance into Kursk has been rapid and, according to some reports, has caught Russian forces by surprise.
- However, analysts warn that holding onto these gains deep inside Russian territory could be risky. Ukraine’s supply lines, already stretched thin, would be vulnerable to Russian counterattacks, and any setbacks could lead to significant losses.
- Russia, on its part, is trying to give an impression that it’s business as usual in its ongoing war with Ukraine. “The Kremlin doesn’t want to send a message that the enemy is at the gate,” Olga Oliker, the director for Europe & Central Asia at the International Crisis Group in Brussels, told Bloomberg. “They don’t want to send a message of Ukraine’s strength and their own weakness.”
What they’re saying
- In his address, Zelenskyy articulated the strategic objectives behind the incursion: “It is now our primary task in defensive operations overall: to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions. This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory -– our operation in the Kursk region.”
- President Zelenskyy’s aide Mykhailo Podolyak said that Ukraine wanted to negotiate “on our own terms”. “We have absolutely no plans to beg: ‘Please, sit down to negotiate”, he wrote on X.
- Russian President
Vladimir Putin said Russia would focus on “new technical solutions”, a euphemism for its war in Ukraine. - “It goes without saying that the main objective for the defense ministry is to force the adversary to withdraw from our territory,”
Putin said. threatening a “strong response.” - “The operation in the Kursk region was also planned with the participation of NATO and Western special services. Without their participation and direct support, Kyiv would not have ventured into Russian territory,” Influential veteran Kremlin hawk Nikolai Patrushev said in an interview with the the Izvestia newspaper.
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations… The scale of the war in Ukraine prevents either side from resolving the war in a single decisive campaign.
Institute for the study of war (ISW) in its daily update on Russia-Ukraine war.
Putin’s “trap”
- According to a Newsweek report, Russian state media has portrayed the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region as a “trap” set by President Vladimir Putin, speculating that Ukraine’s objectives might ultimately benefit Russia.
- Kremlin-aligned outlets like RIA Novosti and Tsargrad have claimed that Ukrainian forces fell into a trap and suffered heavy losses.
- As per the Newsweek report, Ukraine’s best units are now in a potentially vulnerable position, susceptible to an effective Russian counter-attack. “There is a risk of overextending, and there is a risk that precious personnel and resources may be lost and that Putin may use this as a pretext for further escalation,” warned Michael A Witt, professor of international business and strategy at King’s Business School, London.
- The Ukrainian incursion into Russia fits into Putin’s narrative of continued dangers from Nato’s eastward expansion.
- Plus, there is apprehension that Putin might use the incursion to bolster domestic support by reinforcing his narrative that Russia is under threat from the West, possibly leading to broader mobilization efforts within Russia.
What’s next
- The long-term impact of Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region could be significant, but it remains uncertain.
- In the short term, the operation has embarrassed Russia, disrupted its military operations, and altered the narrative of the war.
- By taking the fight into Russian territory, Ukraine has demonstrated that it is capable of offensive actions beyond its borders, which could shift the strategic calculus for both Russia and Ukraine’s Western allies. However, there are risks associated with this bold move.
- There is a question mark over why Kyiv is proceeding with the push when its forces are being overwhelmed in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Even if it were to expose the limitations of Russia’s leadership, wars are not won based on the political embarrassments inflicted upon the adversary. This move might result in Ukraine wasting its most scarce resource in this war—manpower.
- If Ukraine is unable to maintain its positions in Kursk, or if the operation leads to heavy Ukrainian casualties, the incursion could ultimately weaken Ukraine’s overall military capacity. Conversely, if Ukraine can hold its gains or even expand them, it could use the captured territory as leverage in future negotiations with Russia, potentially forcing Moscow to reconsider its strategy in the conflict.
- This operation could also prompt Russia to divert resources from other fronts, possibly relieving pressure on Ukrainian forces elsewhere. However, the success of this strategy will largely depend on how well Ukraine can sustain its operations in Kursk and how effectively Russia responds.
(With inputs from agencies)