The attacks, which saw BLA targeting police stations and taking control of major highways, coincided with the death anniversary of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, who was killed 18 years ago in one of then president Pervez Musharraf’s counter-insurgency operations.
Bugti’s killing only exposed the limitation of kinetic action, in the absence of any genuine attempt to address the aspirations of the tribal population, as it led to the emergence of more armed separatist groups that now target not just Pakistan security forces and Chinese interests but also Punjabi and Sindhi migrant workers.
There’s no doubt that the attacks were on a newer scale and showed increased audacity of the insurgents, their strong support base and increasing ability to operate freely.
According to former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, Ajay Bisaria, targeting of Punjabi workers introduces a new ethnic dimension, signalling that the Baloch radicals are looking to provoke and challenge the primarily Punjabi army.
Nearly half of those killed by the BLA in the latest escalation were Punjabi workers. The Baloch people resent the influx of Punjabis who are seen as having benefited from economic opportunities arising in Balochistan at the expense of the Baloch people. This has fed into the insurgency against the Pakistan state and the anti-Punjabi sentiment that sustains it. The sentiment has its genesis in the traditional domination of the Punjabi elite in the civil bureaucracy and the composition of the Punjabi-dominated army, which lords over the province in the absence of any genuine political leadership or effort to address the local grievances.
To an average Baloch, who believes he has the first claim over the province’s natural resources and sees himself as a victim of the federal government’s discriminatory policies, Punjabi workers only symbolise State repression, as practiced by the essentially Punjabi establishment. Extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, human rights violations and the reluctance of the establishment to engage civil rights groups have added to the mistrust.
According to Bisaria, the latest episode also represents a security meltdown and possibly a coalescing of the Afghan/ Pashtun and Baloch insurgencies. TTP (Pakistan Taliban) and BLA are coordinating, if not colluding. Unsurprisingly, India is being accused of being involved in the latest and previous attacks,” he says.
Islamabad has repeatedly blamed India for providing financial support to the secessionists and Iran of allowing them safe hideouts. India has officially maintained these allegations don’t merit any serious consideration and that Pakistan must introspect its own support to terrorism.
Pakistan remains under attack from the TTP in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the army has been worried for the past few years about a developing nexus between Baloch separatists and the TTP in Balochistan, which is home to a sizeable Pashtun population as well. TTP has cheered attacks by Baloch militants, accused Pakistan army of carrying out massacres in Balochistan and said groups like BLA and TTP have a common enemy. BLA has been designated as a terrorist group by both the US and UK.
Not surprisingly, China was quick to condemn the attacks, saying it’s prepared to enhance counterterrorism and security cooperation with Pakistan to jointly uphold regional peace and security. Pakistan’s hopes of turning the resource-rich Balochistan, its largest and most backward province, into an economic and energy hub have hinged on the BRI’s flagship $60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The CPEC projects, however, have been marred by violent insurgency.
CPEC facilities, along with Chinese engineers and workers, have been targeted by the BLA and other insurgent groups that accuse China of arming Pakistan against Baloch separatists and of working with Islamabad to exploit the natural resources of the province, while aiding the marginalisation of the local people. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif accused the separatists of working to scuttle the CPEC in his remarks on the latest attacks. With the BLA displaying greater operational capacity in the form of multiple attacks across the province, the CPEC, including the centrepiece Gwadar port, will remain vulnerable to the threat of violence.
Balochistan, which accounts for more than 40% of Pakistan’s land mass but only 6% of the population, has a long history of political unrest, as insurgency seeking a separate Baloch state dates to the time of independence. Economic oppression, anti-Punjabi sentiment, enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings and the plain inacceptance of the idea of Baloch nationalism have all contributed to the insurgency that is now jostling with traditionally more high-profile issues like Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan for international limelight.
In the interest of regional, particularly its own, stability, Pakistan must find a way to politically address the Baloch discontent, instead of subjugating the local population with its militarist approach. To begin with, it must look into their grievances, particularly exploitation of resources which remains a sensitive issue. Insurgency has been boosted by the perception among the local people that they are being denied benefits of the exploration of Balochistan’s considerable mineral resources.
While the army for now remains formidable enough to prevent any potential Balkanisation of Pakistan, it must encourage the federal government to enter a meaningful dialogue with the Baloch nationalists to mitigate violence and look at ways to finding a long-term solution, despite the seemingly intractable nature of the conflict. The Baloch people, with their distinct identity, have traditionally been seen as secular and it’s in Pakistan’s interest to ensure they don’t work with groups like the TTP which are driven by extremist religious ideology.
Pakistan also has to find a way to engage civil rights groups like the Baloch Yakjehti Committee that want to peacefully raise issues like enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.
Pakistan will continue to accuse India of funding the BLA. In the past, it has justified crackdown on the separatists by talking up their alleged links with the enemy”. India will of course closely follow how the Pakistan army reacts to the Baloch escalation, as it guards against any attempt to disrupt the assembly polls in J&K. There has been a series of recent terror attacks in Jammu, leading PM Narendra Modi to warn Pakistan against using terrorism or proxy war against India. India believes Pakistan must introspect why attacks have increased in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan since the return of Afghan Taliban to Kabul, a development that Pakistan thought portended the return of its strategic depth in Afghanistan.