The latest IMD update indicated that the system was situated approximately 50 kilometres south-southeast of Agra and 50 kilometres north-northeast of Gwalior.It is anticipated to continue moving towards the north-northeast and gradually weaken on Friday. However, its impact will be felt across a wide region before it dissipates.
Here’s what IMD has predicted for the below mentioned states:
Uttarakhand: From September 12 to 14, the state is anticipated to experience light to moderate rainfall, with isolated areas receiving heavy to extremely heavy precipitation. This could lead to localized flooding, landslides, and waterlogging in vulnerable areas.
Uttar Pradesh: Both eastern and western regions are expected to face heavy to extremely heavy rainfall during this period. The IMD has warned of moderate to high flash flood risks, particularly in west Uttar Pradesh. Rainfall intensity could reach between 115.6 mm and 204.4 mm (very heavy) and exceed 204.5 mm (extremely heavy).
Delhi: Additionally, very heavy rainfall is expected in isolated areas of Delhi on the 12th, as well as in West Uttar Pradesh on both the 12th and 13th of September.
Haryana: Light to moderate rain is forecasted, with periods of heavy rainfall expected between September 12 and 15. Urban areas may face disruptions due to waterlogging and potential flooding.
Rajasthan: West Rajasthan is likely to receive heavy rainfall on September 12, while east Rajasthan will experience heavy to very heavy rainfall on September 12 and 13.
Madhya Pradesh: Heavy rainfall is expected on September 12, with moderate to heavy rain continuing over the following days. This may result in surface runoff and flooding in low-lying areas.
The depression follows a period of substantial rainfall across central India. From September 5 to 11, 2024, extreme heavy rainfall was reported in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh, with very heavy rainfall in Gujarat and East Rajasthan. The cumulative all-India rainfall for this period was 50.9 mm, which is 14% above the long period average (LPA). The seasonal rainfall departure from June 1 to September 11, 2024, stands at +8% above the LPA.
Why it is not classified as a cyclone?
The current system is not classified as a cyclone because it does not meet the intensity criteria set for cyclones. While it has brought significant rainfall and has the potential for severe weather, it lacks the sustained high wind speeds and organised cyclonic circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
Cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh: Depression over North India
According to IMD, the depression that was previously over Northwest Madhya Pradesh has moved north-northeastwards at a speed of 10 km/h in the past six hours. By 8:30 AM IST on 12th September, it was positioned over Southwest Uttar Pradesh, near 27.0°N latitude and 78.5°E longitude, approximately 50 km east-southeast of Agra. It continued its movement north-northeastwards, accelerating to 13 km/h, and by 11:30 AM IST, it was centred near 27.3°N latitude and 78.7°E longitude, about 70 km east-northeast of Agra, 90 km southeast of Aligarh, 130 km north-northeast of Gwalior, and 140 km south-southwest of Bareilly. The system is expected to maintain its strength through the 12th of September before gradually weakening on the 13th. Continuous monitoring is being carried out by Doppler Weather Radars based in Delhi and Lucknow.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation has formed over Southeast Bangladesh and its neighbouring regions in the lower and middle levels of the troposphere. A low-pressure area is expected to develop over coastal Bangladesh and the northern Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours. Following this, the system is predicted to slowly move west-northwestwards, potentially strengthening into a depression over coastal West Bengal and the adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal within 48 hours.
Week 1: September 12 to 18
Extremely heavy rainfall is forecast for isolated regions of Uttarakhand on the 12th and 13th of September, while West Uttar Pradesh is expected to experience similar conditions on the 12th, with continued heavy rain on the 13th. Other regions, including Haryana, Chandigarh-Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, and East Rajasthan, are likely to see isolated heavy rainfall on the 12th. East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are expected to receive heavy rains on the 16th and 17th, while Gangetic West Bengal is likely to experience rainfall on the 13th and 14th. Rain is also forecast for Jharkhand, Assam, and Meghalaya between the 14th and 15th of September. Additionally, Odisha is expected to receive heavy rains on the 13th and 14th, while Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura may see rainfall on the 12th and 13th.
Localised flooding is anticipated in urban areas of these regions, especially in low-lying areas, which may lead to road closures and traffic disruptions. Heavy rainfall could also result in occasional reductions in visibility, affecting travel. Minor damage to kutcha roads and vulnerable structures is expected, particularly in areas of heavy rainfall, while landslides and mudslides are possible in hilly regions. There is also a risk of riverine flooding in certain river catchments; for further details, the Central Water Commission (CWC) website provides more information.
Week 2: September 19 to 25
Rainfall and flood risks in South India: Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected during this period in coastal and south interior Karnataka, as well as the Ghat areas of Tamil Nadu.
Localised flash floods and waterlogging are anticipated in urban areas, leading to road closures and increased travel times due to traffic delays. Minor damage to kutcha roads and vulnerable structures is likely, along with possible landslides or mudslides in hilly regions. The heavy rainfall could also affect standing crops and horticulture in certain areas due to inundation. As in Week 1, certain river catchments may be at risk of flooding, and detailed information can be obtained from the CWC website.