The Middle East edged nearer to a wider regional conflict following Iran‘s launch of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, sending almost 10 million people into bomb shelters as projectiles and interceptors exploded in the skies above.
Israel said it has initiated restricted ground operations in Lebanon, focusing on the Iran-supported Hezbollah militia.
According to Israeli sources, many of the missiles were intercepted, and US officials said that American destroyers contributed to Israel’s defense.Iran claimed that the majority of its missiles reached their intended targets. No immediate reports of casualties were available.
The attack came five months after a strike in April that was the first ever direct Iranian strike on Israel. Ballistic missiles are an important part of the arsenal at Tehran’s disposal.
To better understand the situation, it is crucial to examine Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and the defensive capabilities of Israeli forces:
How dangerous is Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal
Iran possesses a significantly larger arsenal of artillery and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) compared to Israel. However, these weapon systems would need to be deployed near Israel’s borders to be effective, as traditional artillery and MLRS with a range of 70-80 km cannot reach Israel from their current positions.
Iran is also known to have a substantial number of short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Israel. According to a 2021 report by the Missile Threat Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Tehran has thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with a variety of ranges.
Ballistic missiles follow a trajectory that takes them outside or near the limits of Earth’s atmosphere before the warhead separates from the rocket and descends onto its target. An analysis of Iran’s extensive ballistic missile arsenal, considering guidance systems and range, reveals a significant threat to Israel, as Iran is believed to possess at least five different long-range ballistic missiles that can reach Israel from Iranian territory.
Iran’s Ballistic missile system includes primarily short-range and medium-range missiles, such as the Fateh, Sajjil, Shahab, Qiam, and Khorramshar. The short-range Shahab-2, with a range of up to 500 km, has been part of Iran’s arsenal since 1998, while the Fateh-313, another short-range missile with a similar range, was incorporated into Iran’s defense system in 2015.
Medium-range missiles, capable of traveling 1,000 to 2,000 km, were introduced into Iran’s defense program in 2003 with the Shahab-3. These missiles use liquid propellant, carry warheads weighing 760 to 1,200 kg, and can be launched from mobile launchers and silos. According to Iran Watch, the latest variants of the Shahab-3, the Ghadr and Emad missiles, have accuracies within 300 meters (almost 1,000 feet) of their intended targets.
Iranian media reported that Tehran used a new missile, the Fateh-1, in Tuesday’s attacks on Israel. This ‘hypersonic’ missile travels at Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound (6,100 km per hour).
Israel’s defence mechanism: Beyond the Iron Dome
Israel’s nuclear capabilities have been a topic of speculation for decades, as the nation maintains a policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear arsenal. While the country has not officially confirmed or denied possessing nuclear weapons, it is widely assumed that Israel has a substantial nuclear stockpile.
According to estimates from the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Israel’s nuclear arsenal likely consists of approximately 90 plutonium-based nuclear warheads. Furthermore, the country is believed to have produced sufficient plutonium to potentially manufacture between 100 and 200 nuclear weapons.
Israel has a multi-layered missile defense system designed to intercept various types of threats, from ballistic missiles that reach high altitudes to low-flying cruise missiles and rockets.
The Iron Dome, which has garnered significant attention for its effectiveness, is the lowest tier of Israel’s missile defense and is primarily used to counter incoming rockets and artillery weapons. However, the Iron Dome was not the system employed to combat the ballistic missiles launched on Tuesday night, CNN reported.
The next level of defense is David’s Sling, a collaborative effort between Israel’s RAFAEL Advanced Defense System and US defense giant Raytheon. This system protects against short- and medium-range threats, utilizing Stunner and SkyCeptor kinetic hit-to-kill interceptors to neutralize targets up to 186 miles away, as reported by the Missile Threat Project at the CSIS.
Above David’s Sling, Israel has the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, both developed in partnership with the United States. The Arrow 2 employs fragmentation warheads to destroy incoming ballistic missiles in their terminal phase, as they descend towards their targets in the upper atmosphere.
According to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, the Arrow 2 has a range of 56 miles and a maximum altitude of 32 miles, representing an upgrade from the US Patriot missile defenses Israel previously used in this role.
The Arrow 3, on the other hand, utilizes hit-to-kill technology to intercept incoming ballistic missiles in space before they reenter the atmosphere on their way to targets.