Iran‘s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had reportedly warned Hezbollah leader Syyed Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon just days before his death in an Israeli airstrike, expressing serious concerns about Israeli infiltration within Tehran’s senior ranks, according to Reuters Iranian sources.
Following an attack on Hezbollah’s communication devices on September 17, Khamenei had dispatched an envoy to urge Nasrallah to seek refuge in Iran, citing intelligence that indicated Israel had operatives embedded within Hezbollah and intended to assassinate him.This envoy was Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, a high-ranking commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who was present with Nasrallah during the bombing and was also killed.
Since Saturday, Khamenei has remained in a secure location in Iran and ordered approximately 200 missiles to be launched at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation for the deaths of Nasrallah and Nilforoushan, according to a senior Iranian official. This military response was also linked to earlier Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, although Israel has not taken responsibility for Haniyeh’s death.
On Tuesday, Israel initiated what it called a “limited” ground incursion against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Iran’s foreign ministry and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which oversees Mossad, did not respond to requests for comments.
Nasrallah’s assassination came after weeks of targeted Israeli strikes that had already dismantled critical weapons sites and decimated Hezbollah’s leadership structure.
Iran is increasingly alarmed about both the safety of Khamenei and the eroded trust between Hezbollah and Tehran, as described by multiple sources. This turmoil complicates the operational effectiveness of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, the coalition of anti-Israel armed groups supported by Tehran, with Hezbollah being its most significant member since its founding in the 1980s.
This upheaval complicates Hezbollah’s ability to select a new leader, as the ongoing infiltration raises fears for any successor’s safety, according to four Lebanese sources.
“It’s a significant loss for Iran, as it has lost its most important investment over the decades,” said Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University. “This has shaken Iran to its core, revealing deep infiltration not only within Hezbollah but also affecting trusted military advisers to Khamenei.”
Hezbollah’s diminished military capabilities may push Iran towards renewed attacks on Israeli embassies and personnel abroad, reminiscent of its pre-proxy warfare strategies, Ranstorp noted.
Iran Conducts Arrests
The aftermath of Nasrallah’s death has prompted Iranian authorities to scrutinize potential infiltrators within their ranks, particularly among the Revolutionary Guards and senior security officials. They are particularly concerned about members who have traveled abroad or have family living outside Iran.
Suspicion arose regarding certain Guards members visiting Lebanon, especially one individual who inquired about Nasrallah’s whereabouts. This person and several others have been arrested amid rising concerns within Iranian intelligence.
This assassination has instigated mistrust both within Tehran and Hezbollah, with one official stating, “The trust that held everything together has disappeared.” Another source close to Iran’s establishment remarked that Khamenei “no longer trusts anyone.”
The alarm about possible Mossad infiltration had already been raised after the July killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike while he was meeting with an IRGC commander in Beirut.
Unlike Haniyeh’s assassination, Israel publicly acknowledged responsibility for Shukr’s death, a significant loss given his crucial role in developing Hezbollah’s advanced weaponry and operations against Israel.
Iran’s fears regarding Israeli penetration have been longstanding. In 2021, former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed that the head of an intelligence unit targeting Mossad agents was actually working for Israel, referencing a major 2018 operation in which Israel obtained sensitive Iranian nuclear documents.
Pager Explosions Prompt Warnings
Khamenei’s warning to Nasrallah to relocate to Iran came after deadly explosions destroyed Hezbollah’s communication devices on September 17 and 18, widely attributed to Israeli actions. Despite this, Nasrallah remained confident in his security and trusted his inner circle, dismissing Tehran’s concerns.
Khamenei sent a second message through Nilforoushan last week, urging Nasrallah again to leave Lebanon, but Nasrallah insisted on staying.
In response to the pager blasts, Tehran convened high-level meetings to assess Hezbollah’s safety, though details of these discussions remain undisclosed. Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched its own investigation to root out potential Israeli spies, leading to the questioning of hundreds of members.
Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a senior Hezbollah official, was spearheading this inquiry until he was killed in an Israeli raid shortly after Nasrallah’s assassination. The investigation aimed to identify individuals involved with the compromised communication devices.
The depth of this inquiry has increased significantly in light of the recent assassinations, with reports indicating that Hezbollah detained hundreds of individuals for questioning.
The shock of losing Nasrallah and the infiltration revelations have left Hezbollah in turmoil, with seven sources confirming the scale of Israel’s penetration. Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center referred to this as “the biggest intelligence infiltration by Israel” since Hezbollah’s inception.
The ongoing Israeli military actions follow nearly a year of cross-border confrontations that escalated after Hezbollah supported Hamas’s attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in heavy casualties on both sides.