SRINAGAR: A fraught place even in the simpler of times, Jammu and Kashmir was a picture of keen anticipation on the eve of the election results, rife with rumours and agog with controversies that could determine the reaction of the people and the parties to the outcome.
In the polls held after a gap long of 10 years and against the backdrop of the annulment of the special status for J&K under Art 370 and 35A, the question was if National Conference and Congress would get the numbers to form govt or fall short, triggering a mad scramble for alliances.But the bigger suspense seen with much trepidation in the Valley was if Jammu would give BJP enough seats to try forming govt with the famous “X factors” of this suspenseful contest – Apni Party, Engineer Rashid’s AIP and independents.
Ahead of the poll outcome, J&K was rocked by the controversy over “five nominated MLAs” that Centre said would be named by the LG. The opposition mocked that counting had already started for BJP and it would start its tally with five. There was talk of moving court if nominations were made by the LG instead of the future state cabinet “as it should be”.
State Congress president Tariq Hamid Karra called it “pre-result rigging”, arguing that even the president cannot nominate members arbitrarily. PDP’s Iltija Mufti said, “1987’s stolen election took J&K to the brink. Yet no lessons were learnt.”
The protests were heard across regional faultlines, even as senior BJP neta and Bijbehara candidate Sofi Yousuf, named the five BJP members who would be nominated as MLAs. “We are governing at the Centre, and obviously our members will be nominated,” he said, fanning the flames. AICC general secretary K C Venugopal warned of a “clear danger to the people’s mandate”, adding, “we are vigilant to all their dirty tricks and will not let them hijack our democracy. The misuse of Centre’s powers will not be tolerated.”
It was only partly comic that parties a day before the result were wondering if the majority mark in the assembly of 90 MLAs was 46 or 48. It was cricket and football at the same time, as some called it a “free hit” for BJP before the first ball had been bowled, and others dubbed it the “shifting of the goalpost”.
As if one row was not enough, the real X-factor Engineer Rashid stirred the pot further by demanding that regional parties refrain from forming govt till statehood is restored.
NC and Congress accused Engineer of playing the BJP’s game after visiting Delhi for a day. “BJP would like nothing more than to extend the central rule in J&K, if they aren’t in a position to form govt,” Omar Abdullah said. Karra argued “elections are fought to form govt and that obligation has to be fulfilled.”
Amid the flux, there was confusion about the formation of a grand alliance to keep BJP at bay. PDP’s Nayeem Akhtar offered support to NC and Farooq Abdullah reciprocated with gratitude. But Omar Abdullah and PDP’s Iltija rubbished the talk as “unnecessary speculation”.
Mandate 2024 raised the guessing game if the divide between Jammu and Kashmir regions will continue. For all the hostility in Kashmir, there is already a talk about BJP eyeing its first seat in Kashmir, with Gurez seen as a real possibility.
It remains to be seen how the “X-factors” of Kashmir will roll after the results, and if BJP will actually find proxies in the Valley. Most of the Valley players have sought votes solely in the name of confronting BJP. And the funny bit is that every player – NC, PDP, People’s Conference, Engineer – targeted the other as BJP’s “sleeper cell” as they jostled for secular votes riled by 370 and Hindutva. In this play, PDP was at a serious loss because of its 2014 tie-up with BJP. That has made the election an issue of survival for the Mufti outfit.