NEW DELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a resounding victory in Haryana, clinching its highest-ever seat tally and paving the way for a third consecutive term in power. Meanwhile, in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance emerged as the frontrunner to form the government.
The BJP defied exit poll projections and analysts’ expectations in the first elections held after the June Lok Sabha polls.The Congress faced sobering lessons, while the NC achieved an unequivocal triumph, leading the alliance to power in Jammu and Kashmir.
According to the Election Commission, the BJP won 48 out of the 90 seats in Haryana, setting the stage for a third straight term in office. In J&K, it secured 29 out of the 90 seats and the NC-Congress got impressive 48 seats. BJP’s success in Haryana has served as a timely boost ahead of the upcoming Maharashtra, Jharkhand elections. On the other hand, Congress’ significant setback has dashed its hopes of capitalising on the gains made during the Lok Sabha elections.
Here are the key takeaways from the election results of Haryana and J&K:
Huge boost for PM Modi and BJP
The victory in Haryana is indeed a history-defying win for PM Modi and BJP. The party has managed to overcome its below-expectation performance of the 2024 general election in the state and has even improved its seat tally from 2019 assembly polls in Haryana. To win for a third time in any state, after being in power for 10 years, is a remarkable feat in itself. To do so in Haryana – the pioneer of ‘Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram’ politics in India -is indeed a historic achievement.
The credit must be given to PM Modi and BJP for not losing hope after the 2024 general election and contesting Haryana polls as per their plans and agenda. In fact, BJP under PM Modi and Amit Shah has totally changed the game of playing electoral politics; they fight till the end even when the wind is blowing against the party. They have done the same in Haryana.
Advantage BJP for Maharashtra and Jharkhand polls
If there were any doubts about PM Modi and BJP winning elections from difficult positions, Haryana has totally dispelled it. The BJP has won from seemingly an impossible position. The honours were even as both BJP and Congress had won 5 seats each in the 2024 general election. But now, the BJP has established its dominance in Haryana again.
The win in Haryana will provide a huge boost and momentum for the saffron party in upcoming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections. At times, politics behaves like stock markets and a positive momentum can make all the difference between winning and losing. There is no doubt that Haryana will serve as a huge morale booster for BJP workers in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
BJP mantra: ‘Change CM, retain state’
BJP’s policy of changing candidates and replacing CMs to avoid anti-incumbency seems to have paid off again.
Of late, the “change CM, retain state” has become a default mode of the BJP if it sensed anti-incumbency mood among the voters. For instance, it deployed this tactic in Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Karnataka and Tripura. Out of these four states, BJP managed to retain three.
The ‘change CM, retain state’ policy seems to have helped BJP create history in Haryana. BJP has become the first party to score a hat-trick in the state.
BJP vs Congress: The same old story?
The rise of BJP can largely be attributed to the decline of Congress. Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has seen an overwhelming success in any direct fight with the Congress.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had a strike rate of over 90% against Congress where both parties were in a direct contest.
However, the Congress has tried to make the fight more respectable, especially since Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. In 2024 general election, the BJP’s strike rate was down to 70% vis-a-vis Congress.
Moreover, the battle was becoming more even in assembly elections. In the last two years, the Congress had managed to win back Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka in a direct fight with the saffron party.
Haryana was said to be an election for Congress to lose and the party has lost it. Now, the BJP seems to be back to its winning ways against Congress.
The upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand may not see a direct contest between these two parties but BJP will fancy its chances wherever it will be in a direct fight with the Congress.
Congress: No more first-among-equals in INDIA block?
After the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress has clearly emerged as the main pole of the opposition politics. In 2024, Congress nearly doubled its tally from 2019 LS polls and the party was officially able to claim the leader of opposition position.
With today’s results, questions will be raised again in INDIA block over the Congress’s place in opposition politics. To its credit, Congress is still the only party which can claim a pan-India presence among INDIA block parties.
As of now, Congress has its government in 3 states: Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. AAP is the only other opposition party which has a government in 2 states: Punjab and Haryana.
Nevertheless, regional parties will now try to drive a hard bargain with Congress in upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Index of opposition unity: Why it matters
The BJP seems to have benefitted from a division of votes among the opposition ranks in Haryana. The decision of Congress and AAP to contest separately has played out in favour of the saffron party. Though AAP has managed to get merely around 1.7% votes in Haryana, it could have made a huge difference if the party had fought in alliance with Congress. In a close contest, the difference of even one percent vote share can hugely impact the electoral outcome. If a party’s vote-seat conversion ratio is not high, even a drop of 1% in vote share can result in loss of about 60 seats as happened with the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In Haryana, the INLD-BSP and JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliances further muddled the opposition field. Then there were many Independent candidates, which contributed to division of opposition votes in their own ways. All in all, the low index of opposition unity has worked well in favour of BJP in Haryana polls.
Split-voting is here to stay
In the last few years, voters are increasingly adopting horses-for-the-courses policies. They are voting differently in national, assembly and local polls. Haryana results are the latest indicator of this trend. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both BJP and Congress won 5 seats. It was a huge boost for Congress as the party had not won any seats in the 2019 general election. Based on its Lok Sabha performance, Congress was hoping for a comeback in Haryana, especially after the 10-year rule of BJP in the state.
But, voters chose to opt differently from the LS polls. In a way, it’s a sign of maturing and deepening of democracy in India. State elections are different from the Lok Sabha. They are more localised and need micro-management. In assembly polls, candidates and local issues matter more for voters than in the Lok Sabha polls.
In Haryana, the BJP is a clear beneficiary of this split-voting trend. No two elections are the same, but this trend should make the party wary for Delhi assembly polls.
AAP’s push in Haryana faces setback
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) faced a crushing defeat in the Haryana state elections on Tuesday, even though it is the home state of the party’s leader, Arvind Kejriwal. The majority of AAP candidates also had to forfeit their security deposits. The party managed to secure only 1.79 per cent of the total vote share though it had contested all 90 seats.
The disappointing results come as a blow to Kejriwal, who was prominently featured as the face of the party’s campaign, with the slogan ‘Haryana ka Lal (son of Haryana)’. The results come just days after Kejriwal resigned from the Delhi CM post and now faces another hurdle as the Delhi elections loom just four months away. The results have also sparked debate on whether the party made a mistake by not allying with Congress for state polls.
The party managed to open an account in Jammu and Kashmir as its candidate Mehraj Malik defeated BJP’s Gajay Singh Rana by 4,538 votes from Doda seat.
Congress’ leadership crisis and time to rethink strategy
Congress failed to take Haryana back from BJP even after an anti-incumbency wave, protests by farmers, wrestlers and schemes like ‘Agniveer’. Though exit polls predicted a clean sweep to Congress, the party failed to translate the Lok Sabha momentum into numbers. The party needs to rethink its strategy to contest assembly polls, especially the infighting.
The party high command has faced tough times addressing leadership claims after victory in states like Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana where Congress has governments.
In Karnataka, the Congress leadership had a tough time trying to resolve the tussle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar for the top post in May last year. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress high command faced a similar dilemma in choosing between two strong contenders – Sukhvinder Singh Sucku and Pratibha Singh, wife of former party chief minister late Virbhadra Singh. Telangana also gave tense moments to the Congress leadership after the party stormed into power in the state in December 2023. Revanth Reddy, who was at the forefront of the campaign, was announced CM pick after two days of suspense with his rivals lobbying hard for the top job.
In fact, Rajasthan is perhaps the biggest example of how rivalry between two state leaders put the Congress leadership under test and the party on the backfoot. The party picked Ashok Gehlot as chief minister after winning the state in 2018 ignoring the claims of then state chief Sachin Pilot. While the Congress high command managed to placate Sachin, there was no lasting truce between the two leaders and the party eventually lost the state to BJP in 2023.
Times for exit polls to exit?
Almost all exit polls got it completely wrong in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. They may have got the direction right but overall results were clearly against their predictions.
In the latest round, the headline after exit polls were: Clear win for Congress in Haryana and edge for NC-Congress in Jammu & Kashmir. The actual results show: Historic verdict for BJP in Haryana and clear win for NC-Congress in J&K.
So, in more damage to their reputation, exit polls have got both the trend and margins completely wrong in Haryana. They have some redemption in Jammu and Kashmir where results have been on their predicted lines. But exit polls seriously need to have a relook at their methodology and sample selection.
The next round of assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand may prove to be more decisive for the entire enterprise of exit and opinion polls.