NEW DELHI: This October was the warmest on record in the country, breaking the previous high of 1951, the Met office said Friday. Central India (Madhya Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh) led the mean temperature chart for October, becoming the warmest on record, too, whereas northwest India, which includes Delhi-NCR, became the second warmest on record since 1901.
The ‘above-normal’ temperature phase may continue in many parts of the country in the first two weeks of November, with the possibility of a slight fall in the second week followed by a gradual dip in temperature during the rest of the month, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Since La Nina — a climate phenomenon associated with periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in central and east-central equatorial Pacific — has not yet developed, the Met department is not in a position to clearly predict the nature of winter as yet. There is still a prediction of La Nina formation in NovemberDec. If that happens, there is a possibility of a harsher winter (Dec-Feb) ahead.
“La Nina is usually linked with a fall in temperature in north and northwest India during winter, but we can’t forecast anything at this juncture. Research is going on to find out why the La Nina condition has not yet developed despite favourable conditions,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
We need to find out why all global models went wrong, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, adding, “Latest global model forecasts indicate a higher chance of La Nina conditions developing during November-Dec, and therefore, we need to wait to make any forecast about the nature of winter at this stage, even as there are many other climate factors which impact the season.”
On reasons behind a warm October, Mohapatra attributed it to formation of four low pressure systems, late withdrawal of summer monsoon, and absence of western disturbances during the month. As far as November is concerned, IMD predicted ‘above normal’ maximum temperatures (warmer days) over northeast and east central India, and some parts of northwest and Peninsular India. “Normal to below normal maximum (day) temperatures are likely over west central India and adjoining areas of northwest India and north peninsular India,” it said.
In terms of minimum temperatures, most parts of the country, except some areas of northwest, may face ‘above-normal’ temperatures (warmer nights) during the month.