NEW DELHI: The high-decibel and often bitter campaign for Maharashtra assembly elections has drawn to a close and on November 23 we will know who is the winner of this keenly contested “Maha political yudh”. But the results are unlikely to end the suspense over who will be the next chief minister of the state as both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition’s Maha Vikas Agadhi have kept their options open and not projected any chief minister face.
Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, who head the two factions of the Shiv Sena and occupied the top post for the last five years, are not the automatic contenders for the top job if their respective coalition wins.
Uddhav led the MVA government in coalition with the Congress and the NCP after 2019 assembly elections for nearly two-and-a-half years. In 2022, he was forced to quit after Eknath Shinde led a revolt against the Sena chief. Shinde, who went on to become the chief minister of the Mahayuti, eventually wrested control of the party from Uddhav.
Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, who served as chief minister of Maharashtra from 2014 to 2019, has already announced that there is no set formula to decide the next chief minister of the ruling coalition if it wins the elections. “A decision (on CM post) will be taken by leaders of the three parties. Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are national presidents of their respective parties and the BJP Parliamentary Board authorises the party president to take a decision. So, the national presidents of the three parties will decide,” Fadnavis had said last week.
In 2022, the BJP leadership, in a surprise move, decided to give the post of chief minister to Shinde, whose rebellion helped the NDA return to power in the state. Fadnavis, who had played a key role in formation of the present Mahayuti government, was denied the top job. The former chief minister had then announced not to join the Shinde government but was “convinced” by BJP leadership to work as deputy chief minister.
This time around the BJP has already dropped enough hints that it may want the top job for the party, specifically Fadnavis, if the Mahayuti is in a position to form the next government. Not declaring Eknath Shinde as Mahayuti’s chief ministerial candidate was a clear message to Shiv Sena that the BJP was keeping this decision open-ended.
“At present, the Mahayuti alliance was contesting the elections under the leadership of chief minister Eknath Shinde. After the elections are over, the three parties will sit together and decide about the chief minister,” Union home minister Amit Shah had said after releasing BJP’s manifesto for Maharashtra.
Clearly, while Eknath Shinde is the chief minister for now, his return to the top post is not guaranteed even if the Mahayuti wins another term. The Mahayuti is united, but that does not rule out power tussle for the top job if it wins the elections. It will be interesting to see how the Shiv Sena leaders and cadres react if the top job is not given to their leader again.
There are similar undercurrents of power tussle on the other side of the political divide also. The three constituents of the opposition’s Maha Vikas Aghadi – the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP-SP headed by Sharad Pawar, have also not announced any CM face. This despite the fact that Uddhav Thackeray led the coalition government for two and a half years. The Shiv Sena (UBT) wanted Uddhav to be declared the CM face, but the Congress strongly resisted this demand.
The Lok Sabha election results in the state further hardened the Congress’s stand and the grand old party insisted that any decision on the top job would be taken after the assembly election results were out. The Congress, which won the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats, 13 out of 48, clearly did not want to commit its support for Uddhav’s leadership anticipating similar gains in the state elections. But then came the Haryana debacle which once again put the Congress under pressure. The three MVA partners managed to reach seat-sharing consensus after a lot of back and forth, but kept the decision on leadership open ended.
It is evident that numbers will play a key role in deciding the leadership issue in the MVA after the assembly election results are out. While the BJP has a position of dominance in the Mahayuti and can dictate terms, in the opposition bloc the path to consensus is likely to be tricky and difficult.
In 2019, it was fight for the top post that led to one of the biggest political realignments in the state. It will be interesting to see what happens in 2024, if the winning coalition fails to reach a consensus on “Kaun Banega Mukhya Mantri.” After all, both the coalitions have two factions of the same party on the opposite sides of the divide. Will the state see new realignments for the top post after November 23?