Pakistan’s latest political protests, spearheaded by Imran Khan‘s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have ended in turmoil, underscoring a broader crisis within the state.
Driving the news
- The PTI protest, aimed at securing Khan’s release and pressuring the government to address grievances, fizzled out under the weight of a severe military and police crackdown.
- Islamabad, home to 2.4 million residents, was turned into a “container city” as authorities deployed over 700 shipping containers to block key routes and maintain control.
- “This is not the Islamabad I grew up in,” said Ms Bano, a schoolteacher who had to cancel her classes for three consecutive days. “Everywhere I looked, there were barricades and containers. We feel isolated and anxious in our own city,” she told the New York Times.
- The sit-in, framed as a “final call” by PTI, fizzled out early Wednesday after security forces launched a midnight raid in the capital. Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who led the march with fiery speeches and promises to fight until the end, retreated under a hail of tear gas. PTI supporters dispersed, leaving behind a trail of debris and dashed hopes.
- The outcome was grim: nearly 1,000 arrests, allegations of state violence, multiple injuries, and casualties.
Why it matters
- The protests unfolded against the backdrop of economic turmoil, sectarian violence, and an escalating security crisis.
- Pakistan’s economy remains fragile, with inflation and debt weighing heavily on its citizens, while border regions face rising militant activity. These challenges demand focused governance. Yet, the relentless tug-of-war between Khan’s supporters and the ruling establishment has hijacked the national agenda.
- The protests have also highlighted a growing gulf between the state and its citizens.
- Public sentiment towards the military and government has soured further, fueled by repression, allegations of corruption, and an ongoing economic downturn.
- Pakistan now faces the dual burden of political unrest and worsening economic and security crises, with no clear resolution in sight.
The big picture
- The military and government’s forceful suppression of dissent has only exacerbated anger. Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, aptly summarized the situation: “You can’t keep crushing public sentiment and the public will. It’s an untenable policy. And with Pakistan increasingly resembling a train wreck in slow motion, it’s also irresponsible and dangerous. The current confrontation badly needs a political resolution.” The heavy-handed tactics—arrests, tear gas, and allegations of excessive force—reflect a repressive approach that leaves little room for public dialogue.
- Observers note that the state’s attempts to control dissent, including internet blackouts and restrictions on public gatherings, may achieve short-term order but risk fueling long-term volatility. The optics of armed troops confronting citizens, including women and young protesters, has further eroded public trust.
- However, authorities cited security concerns to justify blocking mobile data across much of the city and cutting home internet in some areas.
- “Censorship and surveillance we are seeing right now in Pakistan is unprecedented and very sophisticated,” said Pakistani digital rights activist Usama Khilji. “It’s creating frustration in society,” he told AFP.
- While mobile internet shutdowns have become a regular occurrence during protests by Khan’s Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party since his ouster in 2022, the disruption of home internet is a much rarer phenomenon.
PTI’s missteps
For PTI, the protests were another blow to its political credibility. Despite significant participation from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the movement failed to mobilize broader national support, especially in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province. The party’s abrupt retreat during the crackdown—led by Bushra Bibi and other top leaders—left its supporters disillusioned. Eyewitness accounts described frantic departures as security forces intensified operations in the heart of Islamabad.
“This protest was framed as their ‘final call,’ but for it to collapse like this is a major blow to their political strategy,” said political analyst Zaigham Khan. The chaotic nature of the protest, compounded by leadership vacillations, undermined PTI’s ability to leverage its strong grassroots support.
Broader implications
- The protests reflect a deeper malaise in Pakistan’s governance structure. Allegations of electoral manipulation, censorship, and judicial interference have eroded the state’s legitimacy. February’s elections, in which PTI alleged its mandate was “stolen,” marked a turning point. The subsequent clampdown on opposition voices, including Khan’s imprisonment on corruption charges, has only deepened political polarization.
- The unrest also adds to Pakistan’s growing list of challenges. The country remains mired in economic instability, with high inflation, dwindling foreign reserves, and reliance on international bailouts.
- Meanwhile, security threats from groups like the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) persist, particularly in the northwest.
Economic strain
The protests came amid a volatile economic environment. While the Karachi Stock Exchange rebounded sharply during the unrest, signaling investor hopes for political stability, the underlying economic challenges remain daunting. Businesses in Islamabad were shuttered for days, cutting into an already fragile economy. Commuters and delivery drivers, vital to Pakistan’s gig economy, were paralyzed by roadblocks and internet shutdowns.
“For shopkeepers like me, these protests are devastating,” said Naveed Ali, a small business owner in Islamabad. “Our economy is already in bad shape, and now this chaos adds to our struggles,” Ali told the New York Times.
Political gridlock
The ruling coalition, backed by the military establishment, has doubled down on its strategy of repression rather than negotiation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s administration has denied accusations of excessive force but faces growing criticism for failing to engage in meaningful dialogue. Analysts argue that this approach risks creating a new norm for how political dissent is handled, with long-term implications for civil liberties.
On the other hand, PTI’s reliance on street protests as its primary strategy is showing diminishing returns. Four protests in as many months have failed to achieve significant gains, leaving the party in a political limbo. The leadership’s abrupt retreats during crackdowns have also raised questions about its ability to withstand sustained pressure.
Between the Lines
Michael Kugelman’s assessment of the protests as a “train wreck in slow motion” captures the precarious state of Pakistan’s politics. Both sides of the conflict—the ruling coalition and PTI—are locked in untenable positions. The military’s attempt to maintain control through repression risks backfiring, while PTI’s confrontational approach appears increasingly futile.
Observers highlight that the lack of institutional safeguards and independent judicial oversight has left Pakistan’s political landscape vulnerable to deepening divisions. The country’s obsession with crushing political opponents, Kugelman notes, has created a cycle of unrest that distracts from pressing economic and security challenges.
“The government’s use of force was likely to set an example to deter future protests,” said Lahore-based political analyst Benazir Shah. “However, this heavy-handed approach risks backfiring in the coming days.”
What’s next
- For the government: The ruling coalition must confront growing public discontent while addressing international scrutiny over its governance record. Analysts stress the need for immediate reforms, including judicial independence and electoral transparency, to rebuild trust. Engaging in dialogue with opposition forces could provide a pathway out of the current impasse.
- For PTI: PTI faces a moment of reckoning. The party must recalibrate its strategy, shifting from reliance on mass protests to building alliances and fostering broader coalitions. Political analyst Benazir Shah suggests that uniting with other opposition movements could amplify PTI’s grievances and create momentum for systemic change.
- For the establishment: The stakes for the “establishment”, an euphemism for the military, are high. The intersection of political, economic, and security crises demands urgent action. Without a political resolution, the country risks further destabilization. International observers warn that continued repression and unrest could damage Pakistan army’s standing.
- The bottom line: Pakistan’s protests have highlighted the fragility of its political and institutional framework. With no clear winners in the latest unrest, the path forward requires compromise and institutional reforms. The alternative—a prolonged cycle of repression and dissent—risks pushing the country further into crisis.
(With inputs from agencies)