NEW DELHI: The Congress, which had mixed electoral fortunes in 2024, braces for a challenging 2025 – with assembly elections scheduled in Delhi and Bihar. While the Congress failed to open its account in Delhi in the last two assembly elections, in Bihar, the grand-old-party won 19 out of 243 seats in 2015 with a vote share of around 10%.
From the high of Lok Sabha gains in June, the Congress was pushed to the corner by the end of 2024 after first losing Haryana to the BJP followed by a humiliating defeat in Maharashtra – where the grand-old-party could win only 16 of the nearly 100 seats it contested as part of INDIA alliance.
Riding high on its success in Lok Sabha elections in the two states, the Congress spurned Arving Kejriwal’s AAP in Haryana and did hard bargaining with its allies Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP(SCP) in Maharashtra. However, after its dismal performance in the two states – the Congress came under severe attack from its allies – with some even questioning its leadership position within the alliance.
During the just concluded winter session of Parliament, the Congress found itself isolated by regional allies – like the Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress – who refused to toe the line of the grand-old-party on some key issues.
The Congress faces an uphill, if not impossible, task in Delhi where AAP supremo Kejriwal has already said no to any tieup for the assembly elections. However, Bihar may offer a glimmer of hope for the grand-old-party provided it can manage to reach seat-sharing deal with Lalu Prasad’s RJD and other INDIA bloc partners in the state.
The assembly elections in Bihar are almost a year away, but the INDIA partners have already raised the pitch. We all heard Lalu Prasad not just backing West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee as leader of the INDIA bloc but also making light of any objections that Congress would raise over the issue. The message was loud and clear for the Congress. Lalu’s remarks had perhaps not much to do with the national politics of the INDIA bloc but was possibly a reaction to the remarks made by some Congress leaders who had started seeking parity in seat sharing for assembly elections in Bihar by citing the party’s strike rate in the Lok Sabha elections.
The RJD had contested 23 Lok Sabha seats and won four, yielding a strike rate of 17%, while the Congress fought on nine seats and won three, achieving a strike rate of 33%. The CPI (ML), with the highest strike rate, contested three seats and won two, marking 67% success. However, the RJD has been the single largest party in the state in the last two elections winning 80 seats in 2015 and 75 seats in 2020.
Congress leader Shanawaz Alam, who is also the Bihar co-incharge, raised the pitch earlier this month by asserting that there was no big brother in Bihar coalition, obliquely referring to the RJD which has been the dominant partner in the state.
“We must reinforce the ideological foundation of the coalition, rather than a hierarchy of power. Congress workers should not view themselves as subordinate to other alliance partners. Any decisions within the alliance would incorporate the input of Congress workers,” Alam had said at a meeting of party workers.
The AICC secretary also demanded that the distribution of seats in assembly elections should be based on the strike rate—a metric reflecting the performance of parties in recent elections, particularly the Lok Sabha polls.
He then fired another salvo at the Bihar ally saying his party would like to have “two deputy chief ministers, including a Muslim” if the coalition formed the next government in the state.
All these statements irked the RJD, which criticised Congress for “violating coalition dharma”. The fallout perhaps was Lalu’s strong remarks against the Congress.
The Congress has suffered in states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh by allowing its leaders to take a strong pitch against the allies. While the Congress needs to assert for rightful share from the RJD, it will have to ensure that strong posturing does not result in snapping of ties in the state.
Two assembly elections was all it took for the Congress to lose its Lok Sabha advantage not just as the principal challenger to the BJP but also as the leader of the opposition’s INDIA bloc. The big question is: Has the grand-old-party learnt from its mistakes?