AAP rejects Delhi exit polls claiming ‘historical underestimation’ – What pollsters said in last 3 elections | India News – The Times of India

NEW DELHI: Two more exit polls for Delhi assembly elections, Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, on Thursday predicted clean sweep for the Bharatiya Janata Party and placed Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) at a distant second. AAP has categorically dismissed the exit poll results stating that pollsters have “historically” underestimated its performance.
Most exit polls predicted a comeback for BJP in Delhi after 27 years and a big setback for the ruling AAP.
AAP national spokesperson Reena Gupta said the exit polls have consistently underestimated the Arvind Kejriwal-led party, and in reality, the party often outperforms these projections.
“Look at any exit poll from 2013, 2015, or 2020 – the AAP was always predicted to win fewer seats. But we ended up securing many more in the actual results,” Gupta said.
Senior AAP leader and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh also dismissed the projections, calling them “surveys by massage and spa companies”.
Here’s how correct the exit polls have been in the past.
Note: Exit polls are just projections made by election survey agencies based on interviews of voters as they come out after casting their votes. They might not hold true on the day of results. The Election Commission will announce Delhi assembly results on February 8.

2013

In 2013, an average of four exit polls placed BJP in a strong position, predicting 35 seats, just one shy of a majority. They forecast AAP and Congress each securing 17 seats. However, the actual results saw the BJP winning 32 seats, AAP securing 28, and Congress just 8. The exit polls significantly underestimated AAP’s rise, with the party building on the India Against Corruption movement. With support from Congress, AAP formed government that lasted only 48 days, before Kejriwal resigned over the failure to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill and Delhi was placed under President’s Rule.
Two exit polls — Headlines Today-ORG and ABP-Neilsen—overestimated BJP’s strength, predicting 41 and 37 seats, respectively. All four polls also overestimated Congress’s performance, predicting it would win in double digits. The most accurate exit poll was Today’s Chanakya, which predicted AAP would win 31 seats, BJP 29, and Congress 10. On average, the polls were off by 11 seats for AAP, while giving three additional seats to the BJP and nine extra to Congress.

2015

In 2015, six exit polls predicted an outright AAP victory, but none could foresee the extent of its triumph. The average of these polls estimated AAP would win 45 seats, BJP 24, and Congress just one. In reality, AAP won 67 seats, leaving BJP with just three. No exit poll predicted that AAP would exceed 60 seats, and only one, Axis My India, predicted the party would win over 50 seats, estimating 53. The lowest estimate came from India TV-CVoter, which projected 39 seats for AAP.
For the BJP, exit polls suggested a much stronger performance, but not enough to challenge AAP. All but one poll predicted BJP would secure more than 20 seats, with Axis My India’s estimate of 17 seats being the lowest. Two agencies, Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India, correctly predicted that Congress would fail to win any seats. However, other polls were more optimistic about Congress, with India Today-Cicero projecting it would win four seats, its highest estimate. The average of the six exit polls was off by 22 seats for AAP and predicted BJP would win 21 more seats than it actually did.

2020

By 2020, with 10 exit polls conducted, predictions for a strong AAP victory were once again widespread, with an average forecast of 52 seats for AAP, 17 for BJP, and just 1 for Congress.
However, AAP performed even better, securing 62 seats, while BJP managed only 8. The Times Now-Ipsos exit poll was the first to report, predicting 47 seats for AAP and 23 for BJP. The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted between 59 and 68 seats for AAP, and 2 to 11 seats for BJP.
Sudarshan News predicted 24-28 seats for BJP, the highest projection for the party by any agency. However, AAP was expected to win only 41-45 seats according to Sudarshan News. The ABP News-C voter exit poll projected between 49 and 63 seats for AAP, and 5 to 19 seats for BJP, while the Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted between 48 and 61 seats for AAP, and 9 to 21 for BJP.
India TV projected 44 seats for AAP and 26 for BJP. In the 2015 elections, AAP secured a historic mandate, winning 67 out of 70 seats, with BJP taking just 3 and Congress failing to open its account.
Despite some improvement in exit poll accuracy in 2020, the predictions still undershot AAP’s electoral performance, which solidified the party’s dominance in Delhi politics.