NEW DELHI: During a key visit to his constituency Rae Bareli, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi reignited political debates by questioning Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati‘s current electoral approach. Addressing Dalit students in Uttar Pradesh, Gandhi asked, “Behenji aajkal chunaav theek se kyun nahi lad rahi (Why is Mayawati not fighting polls properly these days)?“
Reflecting on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Gandhi revealed that Congress had invited Mayawati to join the INDIA bloc alliance but she declined. “If Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP), and BSP had come together, BJP would have lost,” he asserted.
Mayawati responded swiftly, accusing Congress of harboring a “malicious and casteist” attitude toward the BSP. She further criticized Congress’s strategy in Delhi, where the party contested alone against both BJP and INDIA bloc ally Aam Aadmi Party, leading to a significant BJP victory.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mayawati, Uttar Pradesh’s first Dalit chief minister, chose to stay out of the INDIA bloc. While the SP-Congress alliance secured 43 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA bloc overall couldn’t unseat the NDA, paving the way for Narendra Modi’s historic third term as Prime Minister.
BSP’s impact despite zero wins
Though BSP failed to win a single seat, its influence was undeniable. BSP candidates significantly affected INDIA bloc prospects in at least 16 constituencies, including Hardoi, Aligarh, Meerut, Unnao, and Mirzapur. Had BSP votes transferred directly to INDIA bloc candidates, the alliance could have clinched 59 seats in Uttar Pradesh, cutting the NDA’s tally to 20.
On a national scale, this would have raised the INDIA bloc’s count to 250 seats against NDA’s 277 — still short of power but significantly closer.
The BSP dilemma: Ally or adversary?
Interestingly, BSP’s presence also prevented potential losses for the INDIA bloc. Of the 43 seats won by the Congress-SP alliance, 31 might have slipped away if BSP hadn’t split the vote in key areas like Azamgarh, Lalganj, Jaunpur, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, and Saharanpur.
The BSP secured 9.39 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s total vote share — just shy of Congress’s 9.46 per cent —yet remained third in nearly all 80 constituencies.
This complex electoral math highlights the unpredictable role BSP plays in Uttar Pradesh politics. Whether Mayawati aligns with the INDIA bloc in the 2027 assembly elections remains uncertain. Rahul Gandhi’s recent criticism could be a strategic move to isolate her politically or a reflection of past frustrations. Either way, both the INDIA bloc and BJP will be watching her next steps closely.