Germany heads to the polls in a crucial national election, with voters set to choose a new government amid concerns over economic stagnation, migration policies, and the country’s role in European security. The centre-right opposition is favoured to win, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised for its strongest result since World War II.
With Germany being the European Union’s largest economy and a key Nato member, the election will have significant implications for the continent’s future, particularly in shaping its response to global challenges, including the war in Ukraine and relations with the United States.
Who are the candidates?
The race for chancellor sees four main contenders:
Friedrich Merz (Christian Democratic Union – CDU): The centre-right opposition leader has consistently led in the polls and is widely expected to replace Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Merz has positioned himself as a stabilising force, pledging to end political infighting and revive the economy.
Olaf Scholz (Social Democratic Party – SPD): The incumbent chancellor, whose coalition collapsed in November, is facing an uphill battle. His party has been polling between 14-16%, which would be its worst postwar result in a national election.
Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany – AfD): The far-right, anti-immigration candidate is running in second place with around 20% support. Despite her party’s strong performance, other political groups have vowed not to cooperate with AfD, maintaining what is known as the “firewall.”
Robert Habeck (Green Party): The outgoing Vice Chancellor and Greens leader is polling slightly behind Scholz’s SPD. His campaign has focused on environmental policies and continuing Germany’s support for Ukraine.
The Free Democrats (FDP) and a few smaller parties are also in the race but face the challenge of surpassing the 5% threshold required to secure seats in the Bundestag.
What are the key issues?
Economic Stagnation
Germany’s economy has struggled for years, contracting in the past two years with little sign of real growth. Merz has made economic revival a central theme of his campaign, while Scholz’s government has been criticised for failing to implement effective reforms. The new government will need to find solutions to boost investment and competitiveness.
Migration and Border Control
Migration has become a focal point in the campaign, particularly after recent violent attacks involving immigrants. Merz has vowed to tighten border controls and increase deportations. He also introduced a parliamentary motion for stricter migration policies, which passed with AfD’s backing—leading to accusations that he had breached the political “firewall” against working with the far right. Merz has repeatedly denied any collaboration with AfD.
Germany’s Role in Europe and NATO
As Ukraine’s second-largest arms supplier after the US, Germany’s support for Kyiv is a key issue. Mainstream parties have pledged to continue aiding Ukraine, but funding its defence commitments will be a challenge. With a special €100 billion military modernisation fund set to be exhausted by 2027, the next government will need to secure long-term military spending.
Coalition Uncertainty
Germany’s electoral system rarely produces absolute majorities, making coalition-building a complex and lengthy process. Merz’s CDU hopes to form a two-party coalition, but may require a third partner. Possible coalition partners include Scholz’s SPD, the Greens, or the pro-business FDP. The AfD’s rise adds another layer of uncertainty, as mainstream parties refuse to work with it despite its strong showing in the polls.
Election Process and Timeline
Approximately 59.2 million Germans are eligible to vote. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time and will close at 6 p.m., after which exit polls will be released. The final official result is expected early Monday, but forming a new government could take weeks or even months.
This election will not only decide Germany’s leadership but also influence Europe’s direction amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.
The role of Musk and Trump
US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and criticism of of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy have raised concerns among many European countries. As Washington grows closer to Moscow France’s President Macron termed Russia “an existential threat to Europeans”.
Elon Musk a close ally of Donald Trump has played a significant role in amplifying the Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) rise in politics. Musk, a vocal supporter of AfD, has called it the only party capable of “saving Germany” and even appeared at its campaign rally via video link. At the rally, Alice Weidel echoed Trump’s “Make Germany Great Again.” Nine days before the election, US Vice President JD Vance met Weidel, criticising European leaders’ refusal to engage with AfD.