For weeks, it was the rock tour that had the world on edge. NASA’s eyes were locked on asteroid 2024 YR4, a massive space rock once feared to be on a collision course with Earth. The numbers kept changing—1 in 32 odds at one point, enough to make even veteran astronomers uneasy.
But now, after two months of intense calculations, scientists have breathed a collective sigh of relief. On Tuesday, NASA officially ruled Earth safe from YR4, confirming that it will simply fly by in 2032 and pose no threat for the next century. “That’s the outcome we expected all along,” said Paul Chodas, head of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
It’s a stunning reversal. Just last week, the asteroid—estimated to be up to 295 feet wide—had a 1.5% chance of slamming into our planet. Had it struck, the blast would have been equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT—500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. Entire cities could have been wiped out.
The numbers eventually corrected themselves, as experts predicted, bringing the impact risk down to near zero. But while Earth has dodged a cosmic bullet, there’s another problem—YR4 might be heading straight for the Moon.
NASA warns the asteroid now has a 1.7% chance of hitting our lunar neighbor, a major jump from previous estimates. And unlike Earth, the Moon has no atmosphere to shield it. If YR4 makes contact, it would strike at 30,000 miles per hour, leaving a crater up to 6,500 feet across—a fresh scar on the lunar surface.
Still, scientists believe these odds will likely drop as well. The James Webb Space Telescope will soon zero in on YR4’s true size before it disappears from view in the coming months.
For astronomers, this brush with catastrophe wasn’t just a scare—it was an opportunity. “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity” for study, NASA noted.
In the end, Earth got lucky. The Moon? That story isn’t over yet.