JP Morgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman has warned that Tesla’s car deliveries in this quarter are expected to be the lowest since 2022. The analysis suggests that Tesla CEO Elon Musk‘s role in President Donald Trump’s administration maybe discouraging car buyers. For this, Brinkman reduced Tesla’s Q1 2025 global deliveries forecast by almost 20% to 355,000 vehicles from previously predicted 444,000. This revised estimate is notably lower than the 495,000 vehicles recorded in Q4 2024. However, the analyst noted that Tesla’s European sales are under more pressure than in the US due to Musk’s comments on Ukraine, US-NATO participation, and far-right political parties, with new vehicle registrations in January dropping by 50% year-over-year.
What JP Morgan analysts Ryan Brinkman said has predicted about Tesla’s Q1 sales
In a note to clients (seen by Forbes), Brinkman wrote: “We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly.”
He even noted that a similar instance occurred when Japanese and Korean car brands saw their sales drop amid diplomatic disputes with China in 2012 and 2017, respectively.
However, Brinkman explained that these historical cases were “confined to a single market, whereas the decline in Tesla sales in 2025 is not specific to any one nation or geography.”
“Mr. Musk’s work with the Department of Government Efficiency has proven controversial domestically, and while as many members of the political right may be pleased as those on the left are displeased, the effect on Tesla sales seems nevertheless negative,” JPMorgan analysts added.
Brinkman also said that Tesla sales in Europe are “under far greater pressure than at home as a consequence of statements by Musk pertaining to the war in Ukraine, US participation in NATO, and far-right political parties,” as new Tesla vehicle registrations dropped by 50% year-over-year in January.
Analysts have even suggested that, among American car makers, “Tesla appears to have the most to lose” from the “shifting regulatory backdrop” under Trump. The note highlights that the potential rollback of electric vehicle tax credits could further diminish demand for Tesla vehicles.