NAGPUR/CHANDRAPUR: With five-star hotels booked, travel itinerary chalked out, aircraft on standby to fly out MLAs to deflect poachers, and post-poll strategies in place, both Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and Mahayuti are ready to ringfence their winning legislators due to fears of a hung assembly. If neither alliance gets a majority, then support of every Independent becomes crucial, apart from chances of established parties breaking pre-poll alliances and shifting to the opposite side for govt formation.
Sources say two five-star hotels in Mumbai have been booked by “two of the biggest parties” to keep their flock together. Both hotels are affiliated to international hospitality chains, with one located in Kalina and the other in Bandra-Kurla complex.
Winning candidates from both alliances are expected to collect their certificates and make a dash to Mumbai ‘as soon as possible’. It’s expected that chartered flights will start landing in Nagpur from Saturday evening or Sunday morning in case of a hung assembly. The ‘resort politics’ — a slang for herding legislators at a single venue and keeping them under surveillance — is all set to play out in Mumbai from Sunday.
A Nagpur-based BJP politician said, “We are confident of getting a majority, and even MVA feels the same. No big party, especially a national party, fights elections to lose. But results are not always up to expectation, and that is when we have to cobble up the numbers.” A top BJP politician from Chandrapur said Mahayuti has kickstarted discussions with 10 Independent candidates, who are likely to win.
And the urgency with which MLAs are being asked to fly to Mumbai, is not surprising according to BJP’s Chandrapur candidate, Kishor Jorgewar. “The rush to reach Mumbai stems from the November 26 deadline for govt formation, and there is a possibility of the leader (CM candidate) being selected as early as Sunday,” Jorgewar said.
A senior Nagpur-based politician from Congress said, “No party will want to take a chance if a hung verdict comes. Every MLA will count, not only from outside, but within. You don’t want your own flock shifting loyalties, something which we saw happening in Maharashtra twice in the last three years.” The veteran politician, who was also an ex-minister, said, “Independents automatically become kingmakers if Maharashtra sees a hung assembly, so the focus will be on how many Independents we can get to our side. For this, both parties have opened a hotline with independents to woo them over.”
A BJP politician, who did not contest this time, but is close to decision-makers, said the priority will be the rebel candidates who won. “It’s easier to bring back a rebel from your party than it is to woo someone who’s totally independent,” he said. “In 2019, in Ramtek, we all saw Ashish Jaiswal rebelling and winning as an Independent. But right from Day 1, he was supporting Sena. Similarly, in Gondia, we had Vinod Agrawal who rebelled against BJP, but after winning, he was supporting our party,” the politician added.
After ‘rebels’ are taken care of, parties will look for the real Independents and ensure they are on their side. The same BJP leader said, “Many Independents are already aligned with either MVA or Mahayuti in some way or the other. Sometimes it is ideology, sometimes it is shared interests. So, parties look to rope in independents and quickly lock in their support.”
And even after number crunching with Independents, alliances fail to reach the majority mark, the focus will shift to the Third Front. If the third coalition can churn out winning candidates, then it can be a one-stop solution. Sources say third front allies like Bacchu Kadu have already been approached by both sides and urged to join hands.
However, everything now boils down to numbers on Saturday. If either of the alliances, MVA or Mahayuti, cross the 145 seats threshold, then the ‘Plan B’ for Independents and Third Front will automatically fall by the side.
Congress is also looking at neighbouring Karnataka as a “safe place” for its MLAs to stay until the formation of the govt because of the party’s own govt there. “Since Karnataka deputy CM DK Shivakumar played a key role in keeping Congress MLAs together during Karnataka elections, the party has approached him for ‘resort management’ to help Maharashtra Congress. The party is in touch with its counterparts in Karnataka,” a senior Congress member said.
Learning from their earlier split, NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) have also started establishing contacts with their respective candidates. Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray on Friday held virtual dialogues with the party’s functionaries, instructing them on the precautions they need to take on counting day. Even NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar held a discussion with the party’s senior members and told them to chalk out a post-result strategy.
(With inputs by Anurag Bende in Pune)