Eight years ago, Russian airstrikes helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad‘s forces push rebels out of Aleppo. This was a significant event in the Syrian civil war, which had mostly been in a deadlock since 2020.
Last week, however, rebel forces launched their largest attack against the Syrian government in years.
By Sunday, December 11, they had taken control of large parts of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and were advancing south toward Hama. This offensive led to the first Russian airstrikes on Aleppo since 2016, and the Syrian military withdrew its troops from the city.
In his first public comments since the start of the offensive, released by the state news agency Saturday evening, Assad said Syria will continue to “defend its stability and territorial integrity against terrorists and their supporters.” According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the recent fighting has resulted in 412 deaths, including 61 civilians.
The attack on Aleppo was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist militant group active in the Syrian conflict.
Who are HTS?
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, stands for the “Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant.” It is an Islamist political and militant group mainly operating in Syria’s Greater Idleb area, which includes parts of western Aleppo, the Lattakia mountains, and the al-Ghab Plain in northwestern Hama.
HTS was originally formed in 2011 under the name Jabhat al-Nusra as an affiliate of Al-Qaeda. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State (IS), was also involved in its establishment.
Jabhat al-Nusra was known for being one of the most effective groups fighting against President Assad. However, its focus on jihadist ideology set it apart from the Free Syria coalition.
In 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, announced a breakaway with Al-Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra, and created a new group. This group merged with other similar factions in 2017 and became known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
In 2018, the US state department designated HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO). The group continues to be led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, who was previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
How did the Syrian conflict begin?
In 2011, pro-democracy protests during the Arab Spring were suppressed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces. This crackdown led to unrest that developed into an armed uprising and eventually a fragmented civil war. The conflict involved various rebel groups, some backed by regional powers with differing interests. Over time, the original push for a pluralistic political settlement was overshadowed by the rise of extremist groups, including affiliates of Al-Qaeda and Islamic State.
The war has caused around 500,000 deaths, with nearly 7 million people fleeing Syria as refugees, according to a report by The Guardian. Those remaining face a persistent economic crisis. Assad has regained control of approximately 70per cent of the country with significant backing from Russia and Iran.
Rebel groups are now mostly confined to Syria’s northern and north-western regions, which are supported by neighboring Turkey. Although fighting continues in some areas, the conflict had been largely at a standstill since a 2020 ceasefire in Idlib brokered by Russia and Turkey.
Why has the Syrian conflict reignited now?
The conflict in Syria has reignited due to several factors linked to both local preparation and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) appears to have been planning this operation for some time, conducting significant military exercises in the months leading up to the offensive. Their forces are now better trained and more organized than they were during the 2020 ceasefire. This includes the establishment of a military college and full administrative control over their territories.
Geopolitical changes have also played a role. Key allies of President Assad are facing challenges elsewhere. Hezbollah, an important Iranian-backed militia supporting Assad, has suffered heavy losses due to Israeli operations in Lebanon. Russia, a crucial supporter of Assad, remains committed to the region but is heavily engaged in the war in Ukraine.
Additionally, Israel has increased airstrikes on Iranian forces and weapons depots in Syria, including in Aleppo. These factors have created what some analysts describe as a unique opportunity for the rebels.
The offensive may also be a response to recent Russian and Syrian airstrikes on rebel-held areas, which could have signaled an impending government campaign.