Aaron Y Zelin of the US-based Hudson Institute think tank, in his research paper titled ‘Remaining, Waiting for Expansion (Again): The Islamic State’s Operations in Iraq and Syria’, wrote, “Today, the Islamic State in Iraq is the weakest it has ever been, but the Islamic State in Syria has shown signs of building itself back up.”
The remnants of the Islamic State (IS) in Syria could find new opportunities to strengthen after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, possibly reclaiming territory and freeing imprisoned fighters in Kurdish-controlled northeastern Syria.
IS has historically taken advantage of instability and has often thrived in regions with failing states. Currently, its fighters are spread across small, isolated cells in the eastern Syrian desert. Their survival reflects the weakened control of Assad’s regime in the area. A chaotic political transition, following decades of rule by Assad’s family and over a decade of civil war, could create new opportunities for the scattered IS fighters.
In response to the possible threat of IS regrouping after Assad’s ouster, the US Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, announced on Sunday that it had carried out airstrikes targeting more than 75 IS sites.
Meanwhile, IS’s publication, Al-Naba, in its most recent edition, declared that it would not accept any new government in Damascus unless it was led by the group itself.
Writing before the fall of Bashar al Assad’s regime, Aaron Zelin argued in his paper, “When comparing the Islamic State’s current status and likely future trajectory in the two countries (Iraq and Syria) that formed part of the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate, the picture is most concerning in Syria. Part of this is due to the fact that Syria continues to retain elements of a civil war, as a result, there is no one single governing authority that controls the entire country.
The possibility of a power vacuum in Syria also raises concerns for countries like the United States, European nations, and regional powers, as it could allow IS to strengthen its position. Colin Clark, research director at the Soufan Center, explained, “Chaos and anarchy will inevitably be a boon to the Islamic State, which has been biding its time, slowly and steadily rebuilding its networks throughout the country.”
IS had once controlled large parts of Syria and Iraq during the height of the civil war. However, it lost its territorial “caliphate” after US-led forces defeated it in 2019. Despite losing territory, IS fighters still operate in remote desert areas in Syria.
Although IS is now considered a less centralized organization, some experts have cautioned against dismissing the group prematurely. Its “brand” and influence remain a concern for the Middle East and beyond.
“Since the Islamic State lost its last semblance of territorial control over Syria in March 2019, the number of claimed attacks by the Islamic State in Syria has significantly decreased every year. That changed in 2024 when the Islamic State’s claimed attacks increased,” Zelin wrote. He, however, suggested that the Islamic State is purposefully underreporting its claims in Syria “to make it appear weaker than it actually is.”
“The picture of the group becomes even more complicated when one begins to look at its shadow governance activity. Even if it is intermittent and less sophisticated than it was between 2013 and 2019, this has continued in eastern Syria since March 2019,” Zelin wrote in his paper, adding, “This type of shadow governance assumes three characteristics: taxation, policing morals, and retaking territory (albeit briefly). The Islamic State is still utilizing old administrative documents to pursue the shadow governance strategy.”
A crucial element in determining the Islamic State’s (IS) resurgence or continued containment will be the United States’ commitment to keeping its approximately 1,000 troops stationed in Syria. “The Islamic State still holding sway in many parts of eastern Syria. Considered alongside its increased attack tempo and underestimations of its strength, the Islamic State benefits from the current environment and would likely be able to take quick advantage of any US withdrawal from Syria,” Zelin remarked.
For US president-elect Donald Trump, fighting IS in Syria is “part of his legacy” from his 2016-2020 first term, Soufan Center expert Clarke was quoted as saying by news agency AFP.
“I don’t think he’d want his legacy to be undone by withdrawing US troops from Syria and giving Turkey a green light to go after the Kurds,” he said.