Delhi elections: Will Congress-AAP split help BJP return to power after 27 years? | India News – The Times of India

NEW DELHI: Exit polls have predicted an end to the 10-year rule of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi with most of the pollsters giving BJP a majority in the February 5 elections. If these predictions hold true on February 8 when the votes are counted, it would mark BJP’s return to power in the national capital after 27 long years.
While the BJP helped by its NDA allies went all out to woo Delhi voters, the INDIA bloc was divided in this fight with allies AAP and Congress turning bitter rivals for this high-stakes battle. The campaign saw Congress and AAP target each other fiercely. Arvind Kejriwal all along alleged that the Congress was contesting these elections to help the BJP, while the grand old party questioned AAP’s decade-long governance in the national capital.
Congress, once a dominant political force in Delhi with a government under Sheila Dikshit’s leadership for 15 years, has lost much of its traditional voter base to Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Kejriwal, emerging from the India Against Corruption movement, won 28 seats in AAP’s 2013 debut outing. Much of these gains were made at the cost of the Congress. In 2015, AAP surged to a sweeping victory, claiming 67 seats and leaving Congress with no representation in the assembly.
With the two parties contesting as rivals, a key question remains: Will a potential split between AAP and Congress pave the way for a BJP victory or Will AAP manage to ensure consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes to block the BJP’s path again? Notably, the BJP has not fielded any Muslim candidate in Delhi.
All eyes are now on the final results, which will be announced on February 8. Here’s a look at how the fight between AAP and Congress could possibly help the BJP in some Delhi seats.

The Caste question

In the last election, AAP had secured a strong lead in all 12 SC-reserved constituencies, leaving BJP trailing while Congress struggled to remain competitive.

Margin of victory in 2020:

Right through the 2025 campaign, Rahul Gandhi made a strong pitch for greater representation of Dalits, backward communities, and tribals – the target groups which were traditionally with the Congress but had shifted to AAP in the last two elections.
If Gandhi’s caste-focused rhetoric attracts significant support from the targeted groups, potentially dividing the vote share between AAP and Congress, it could alter the result – especially in seats where margin of victory was slim. It could ultimately tip the scales in favor of the BJP.
In Bawana, AAP won by 11,526 votes, while Sultan Pur Majra saw one of the biggest For instance, in Bawana (SC), Congress trailed AAP by only 11,526 votes, while in Sultan Pur Majra (SC), Congress was behind by a significant 48,052 votes. Mangol Puri (SC) also saw a close race, with Congress trailing by 30,116 votes. Similarly, in Karol Bagh (SC), Congress was behind by 31,760 votes, and in Patel Nagar (SC), the gap was 30,935 votes. In areas like Seemapuri (SC) and Gokalpur (SC), Congress had a narrow disadvantage of 56,108 votes and 19,488 votes, respectively.
There are 12 seats with a strong Muslim voter base; historically, these voters have not been aligned with the BJP, making AAP and Congress their likely alternatives. Whether these votes consolidate or split could determine the final outcome of this high-stakes election.

Muslim voters hold the key?

The voter turnout in Muslim-majority constituencies for the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections showed high participation.
Seelampur recorded a high turnout of 68.70%, with a turnout close to Mustafabad, which had the highest turnout in northeast Delhi at 69%. Other constituencies with notable turnout include Sultanpur Majra (SC-reserved) at 68.30%, and Babarpur at 66%, which ranked well in northeast Delhi.

Margin of victory in 2020:

Seelampur, with 57% Muslim voters, was once a Congress stronghold but was won by AAP in 2015 and 2020. This time, AAP’s Chaudhary Zubair Ahmad is contesting against Congress’s Abdul Rehman, a sitting MLA who recently switched from AAP to Congress.
Congress is also emerging as the main contender against AAP in Muslim-heavy seats such as Matia Mahal (60% Muslim voters), Ballimaran (50%), Okhla (52%), and Chandni Chowk (30%).
Clearly, many of these seats will be under close watch of all the stakeholders tomorrow when the votes are counted. We will have to wait for the actual results to find out if Congress has indeed damaged the prospects of AAP in these elections.