Six years after the Balakot airstrike on 26 February 2019, which saw India launch precision strikes on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror camps in Pakistan, US President Donald Trump has made a move that is raising eyebrows across South Asia.
In a controversial decision, his administration has approved a $397 million package to support Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jet fleet—a development that rekindles concerns in New Delhi over potential misuse against India. Even as Washington promises stringent oversight, skeptics recall how Pakistan deployed these same F-16s against India in the aftermath of Balakot, in violation of US end-use agreements.
But that’s not the only twist. In what seems like a carefully calculated balancing act, Trump has extended an unprecedented olive branch to India: an offer to acquire the advanced F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet. The move signals a dramatic recalibration of US military strategy in South Asia, potentially altering the region’s power dynamics.
The foreign aid freeze — and the Pakistan exception
Upon returning to the White House, Trump wasted no time in imposing a sweeping 90-day freeze on all foreign aid, pledging to put “America First” and conduct a comprehensive review of US assistance programmes. Yet, within weeks, classified documents obtained by Reuters revealed that his administration had quietly approved 243 exceptions to this freeze—one of them being the $397 million F-16 package for Pakistan.
This move directly contradicts Trump’s earlier stance. Back in 2018, he had slashed military aid to Pakistan, accusing it of harbouring terrorists and famously declaring on X (formerly Twitter): “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit.”
Now, however, the Trump administration justifies this package under the banner of counterterrorism (CT) and counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. The irony is hard to miss: the same F-16s being serviced under this programme were used against India in the 2019 skirmish, violating US end-use terms.
The Balakot airstrike and Pakistan’s F-16 controversy
The Indo-Pakistan aerial conflict on 27 February 2019 remains a sore point. Following India’s airstrike on JeM camps in Balakot, Pakistan retaliated by deploying F-16s in a dogfight with the Indian Air Force (IAF).
The IAF claimed to have shot down a Pakistani F-16, a charge Islamabad denied.
Wreckage analysis suggested AMRAAM (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile) debris, a weapon exclusive to F-16s, confirming their involvement.
In response, the US State Department issued a quiet diplomatic reprimand, but no punitive action was taken.
Leaked diplomatic cables revealed that in August 2019, Undersecretary of State Andrea Thompson wrote to Pakistan’s Air Chief, warning that shifting F-16s to unauthorised bases was “concerning and inconsistent” with US agreements. Despite this, Pakistan continued to house these jets outside designated areas, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of Washington’s monitoring mechanisms.
India’s outrage and Trump’s F-35 proposal
The government has yet to officially react, but the diplomatic corridors in New Delhi are abuzz. Critics argue that Washington’s reassurances of tight oversight on Pakistan’s F-16s ring hollow, given past failures.
To mitigate Indian concerns, Trump has extended a game-changing offer—allowing India access to the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter. The proposal, if accepted, would represent a historic shift in US-India defence relations, as Washington has previously barred India from acquiring the F-35 due to its purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defence system, which triggered US CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions.
The F-35 dilemma: Strategic shift or a poisoned chalice?
While an F-35 acquisition would significantly enhance India’s air combat capabilities, it comes with critical challenges:
1. High costs
- Each F-35A costs around $100 million, with operational expenses far exceeding India’s existing fighter fleet.
- Lifetime maintenance costs are projected to be over $1.5 trillion.
2. Tech restrictions
- Unlike Russia’s Su-57E, which comes with full technology transfer rights, the US is unlikely to grant India any autonomy over F-35 modifications.
- US end-use clauses could restrict India’s ability to deploy the aircraft in certain scenarios.
3. Indigenous programmes at stake
- India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project is in development and expected to roll out in the mid-2030s.
- Accepting the F-35 could shift focus away from India’s homegrown fighter programmes.
How the US plans to monitor Pakistan’s F-16s
The Trump administration insists that the $397 million package will not enhance Pakistan’s combat capabilities but merely provide maintenance and sustainment support. Key monitoring mechanisms include:
- Technical security team (TST):
US Air Force personnel stationed in Pakistan will conduct real-time monitoring of F-16 activities. - Base restrictions: Pakistan must house its F-16 fleet separately from Chinese-designed JF-17s.
- Operational approvals: Any deployment outside Pakistan or joint exercises requires US consent.
- Missile control: Advanced AMRAAM missiles will be stored in designated high-security vaults.
- Stationing limits: F-16s can only be based at Shahbaz Airbase (Jacobabad) and Mushaf Airbase (Sargodha).
Despite these measures, security analysts remain highly sceptical. “Pakistan has found ways to circumvent US restrictions before. Why would this time be any different?” one senior Indian intelligence official remarked.
Balancing Act: India, Pakistan, and China in Trump’s South Asia strategy
By funding Pakistan’s F-16 fleet while simultaneously offering India the F-35, Trump is playing a high-stakes game in South Asia. While the F-35 offer is enticing, accepting it could mean:
- A shift away from Russia, India’s primary defence supplier.
- Tighter US influence over India’s military choices.
A new balancing act against China
China has steadily expanded its stealth fighter fleet with the J-20 and J-35, cementing its air superiority ambitions. However, Beijing hasn’t just been upgrading its own arsenal—it has also been arming Pakistan, supplying the country with advanced fighter jets over the past decade.
- In the last five to ten years, China has transferred multiple JF-17 Thunder variants, a fighter jointly developed with Pakistan, significantly bolstering Islamabad’s air capabilities.
- More recently, reports indicate that Beijing is preparing to supply J-10C fighter jets, featuring AESA radar and PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, further shifting the balance in the region.
New Delhi now faces a crucial decision: embrace the F-35 and deepen US military ties, or stay independent and push for indigenous fighter development.
Trump’s calculated gamble
Trump’s transactional foreign policy remains as unpredictable as ever. By throwing both Pakistan and India into the mix, he is reshaping the regional military balance while ensuring America remains a key player in South Asian geopolitics.
As the dust settles, the big question remains: how much can New Delhi trust Donald ‘Maverick’ Trump?