Does an early end to winter imply that summer is likely to be a scorcher? TOI analysed 54-year temperature data for north India to find that a warm Feb doesn’t necessarily lead to a hotter than usual month of April.
NEW DELHI: Winter has ended early in north India and February in Delhi is set to be among the three warmest in the last 15 years. So, does the early conclusion of winter indicate a long and scorching summer ahead? Contrary to the general view, data from past years shows that a warm Feb doesn’t necessarily lead to a searing summer in north India.
TOI analysed monthly average maximum temperatures in north India since 1971 and picked the 10 warmest months of Feb during this period. In five of these years, the corresponding months of April were indeed warmer or significantly warmer than normal but in the other five, April temperatures were either close to normal (four years) or below normal (one year).
These two months were chosen for the analysis because Feb is the last month of winter in north India, while April marks the beginning of full-blown summer conditions in the region. March is usually a month of transition.
“There is no direct one-to-one relationship between temperatures in Feb and April. Temperatures in these two months depend on multiple factors, including largescale signals such as presence of El Nino (or La Nina) and synoptic features such as the frequency, intensity and duration of western disturbances,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of India Meteorological Department.
Trends in recent years exemplify the absence of a link between temperatures in Feb and April. In 2023, north India experienced record heat in Feb but April was cooler than normal. Feb that year was the warmest since 1901, with the average maximum temperature 3.5 degrees above the mean during 1971-2024.
However, April that year turned out to be the coolest in eight years, with average maximum temperatures nearly 1 degree below the mean during 1971-2024.
The reverse happened in 2022. April of that year in north India was the hottest on record, while temperatures in Feb were close to normal.
“In the years when a strong El Nino (or La Nina) prevails, there can be a link between temperatures in the two months. This year, however, we have a weak La Nina that’s not expected to influence temperatures,” Mohapatra said.
Another factor that’s increasingly playing a role in making both months hotter in general is climate change. “The past couple of decades have been the warmest on record. So, because of climate change, the probability of any month being warmer than in the past is high,” said the chief of IMD, which is scheduled to release its forecast for the months of March, April and May soon.