Indian stock markets witnessed a sharp and sustained downturn in February, with the benchmark Sensex closing over 4,000 points lower, translating to a 5% loss for the month. This dramatic decline has resulted in a staggering erosion of over Rs 40 lakh crore from the market capitalization of BSE-listed companies in just one month. The Nifty 50 also suffered a significant blow, recording its fifth consecutive month of losses, marking its longest losing streak since its inception in 1996. This relentless downward trend has sparked concerns among investors about the overall health of the Indian market.
Talking about Blood Bath in the stock market on Twitter, Zerodha Founder and CEO Nithin Kamath wrote, “The markets are finally correcting. Given that markets swing between extremes, they can fall more just like they rose to the peak. I’ve no idea where the markets go from here, but I can tell you about the broking industry. We are seeing a massive drop in terms of both the number of traders and volumes. Here is the trading volume chart. Across brokers, there’s a more than 30% drop in activity. Combined with the true-to-market circular, we are seeing degrowth in the business for the first time since we started 15 years ago. This drying up of volumes shows how shallow the Indian markets still are. The activity is more or less among those 1-2 crore Indians. By the way, if this continues, the government will not make even Rs 40000 cr from STT in FY 25/26, at least 50% below the Rs 80,000 cr estimate.”
Kamath shared two charts with the post.
But, Not all Bad for Investors
However, it’s not all gloom for investors as market advisory company Merisis said that the ongoing downturn may mark the final stage of capitulation, setting the stage for a strong counter-trend bounce in the markets over the next 4-6 weeks.
Similarly, Jefferies’ Global Equity Strategist Chris Wood said that the ongoing market correction is primarily technical in nature. “For the first time since the stock market started to correct properly, GREED & fear’s base case is that the sell-off is primarily technical in nature reflecting multiple compression rather than any drastic macro issues,” Wood wrote in the GREED & fear newsletter.