IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told TOI, “This aligns with the near-normal onset date for the region, with Port Blair usually experiencing monsoon onset around May 20. Favourable conditions, including strengthening southwesterly winds and heightened rainfall activity, are expected to facilitate the monsoon’s advancement into the region by May 19.”
Dr Medha Khole, head of IMD’s weather forecasting division in Pune, told TOI, “The normal advancement date into this region is around May 22. So this time, it may be slightly earlier than that. There is some kind of convection developing over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal. This is associated with a cyclonic circulation in lower levels, increasing the chances of convection over the region. Winds are also becoming more southwesterly. Hence, conditions are favourable for monsoon advance over the south Andaman Sea, certain areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal and the Nicobar islands around May 19.”
Dr Khole said, “The slightly earlier onset over the Andamans does not necessarily mean that the monsoon would arrive earlier than normal over Kerala also, where the normal onset date is June 1. The onset over Kerala is declared based on rainfall, and wind speed, direction, depth and convection. IMD declares the onset of monsoon if at least 60% of the 14 designated meteorological stations in Kerala and Lakshadweep record at least 2.5mm of rain for two consecutive days at any time after May 10.”