Sheikh Hasina flees Bangladesh: Why experts call it ‘worst-case scenario’ for India | World News – Times of India

In a region fraught with internecine neighbours, Sheikh Hasina was one of New Delhi’s closest allies. However, chaos has now descended in Bangladesh as Sheikh Hasina and her family have fled the country. Her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, stated that his mother wouldn’t return to active politics. Hasina is currently staying in India, with various reports suggesting she will seek political asylum in the UK.She was received by NSA Ajit Doval at the Hindon Airbase in Ghaziabad near New Delhi. Hasina is also accompanied by her sister Rehana, who holds UK citizenship.
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Hasina was in power for 15 consecutive years and maintained excellent relationships with both UPA and NDA governments. Hasina’s departure is a wild card moment for New Delhi, and one that it probably didn’t foresee in the near future.
Things looked quite different in June when Harris was in India for PM Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. Her second visit in June, the first by a head of state after the BJP-led coalition came to power, showcased the usual bonhomie. At the press conference, PM Modi had said, “We have met 10 times in the last year. However, this meeting is special because Sheikh Hasina is the first state guest after the third term of our government.” Back then, Hasina said, “Bangladesh greatly values its relations with India. Come to Bangladesh to witness what we have done and plan to do.” These words would later prove to be her famous last words.

Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think tank, viewed the resignation and departure of Ms. Hasina as “nearly a worst-case scenario for India,” given India’s long-held view that any alternative to Ms. Hasina and her party poses a threat to its interests. Kugelman told the BBC that Delhi will likely engage with Bangladesh’s military to express its concerns and ensure that its interests are considered in the formation of an interim government. Kugelman added that beyond this, India will have to wait anxiously. While it may publicly support free and fair elections in the interest of stability, India is apprehensive about the possibility of the BNP returning to power, even though the party is currently weak and divided. For this reason, Delhi likely wouldn’t oppose an extended period of interim rule.
An unnamed diplomat was quoted by the BBC saying, “India doesn’t have too many options at this point in time. We have to tighten control on our borders. Anything else would be construed as interference.”
Geo-strategist Brahma Chellaney wrote on X: “Leading a secular government that Islamists detested, Hasina gave Bangladesh rapid economic growth. But powerful external forces were aligned against her. Her decision to award the Teesta project to India angered China. And, sadly, Biden went after her.”

ORF fellow Kabir Taneja called it a “tectonic shift in the region, and a fresh crisis headache for New Delhi.”

Prof. Ian Hall wrote, “It goes without saying – and I say this without judgment: if confirmed, Sheikh Hasina’s fall is a big setback for New Delhi and for the Modi government.”
This sensitivity has fostered a reciprocal relationship, with India supporting Bangladesh’s development and enhancing connectivity to emphasize the economic and security interdependence between the two nations. For instance, India recently offered assistance with the Teesta Reservoir Project, a strategically significant location near the Siliguri Corridor, which China has shown interest in. Despite China’s overtures, Hasina’s visit to Beijing in July did not yield significant concessions, and she even shortened her trip by a day.
During Hasina’s tenure, Bangladesh and India achieved a historic land boundary agreement, resolving a long-standing issue. The countries have also collaborated closely on energy, sharing electricity and fuel, with India often acting as the first responder for Bangladesh in times of need. Over the years, Sheikh Hasina consistently emphasized the strong and multifaceted relationship between Bangladesh and India, often referring to it as a “Golden Era” of bilateral ties. She often highlighted the deep historical and cultural connections between the two countries, crediting India for its crucial support during Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 and for its ongoing role in regional security and stability. Hasina expressed appreciation for India’s investments in Bangladesh, particularly in the infrastructure and energy sectors, which have significantly contributed to the country’s economic development.
With her departure, New Delhi will have to wait and see how things pan out, but it’s unlikely that the new interim government, cobbled together under the aegis of Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman, will share the same warmth with New Delhi.